[Fujitomi] Crude oil generally trends upward, with notable increases in petroleum products

（Tokyo Crude Oil and Petroleum Products）
Tokyo Crude Oil and Petroleum Products on the 12th were slightly higher. Light crude futures for November were up 330 yen from the previous week’s close at 33,520 yen, gasoline futures for December were up 720 yen at 46,390 yen, and kerosene futures for December were up 850 yen at 47,490 yen.
With the autonomous rebound in overseas oil markets, the Tokyo oil market showed a rebound from the weekend night trading. With WTI recovering to the 46-dollar level over the weekend, the tone remained firm. Last week, despite weak fundamentals, crude futures held around 33,000 yen with some firmness, so this rebound could be considered somewhat overbought, but buying continued at the start of the week, showing even stronger support. For the near term, it’s awaiting inventories statistics and forecasts. Also, several monthly reports will be released this week, so movements may be affected by those releases, so we want to respond flexibly. In any case, we want to avoid chasing too much.

（Tokyo Precious Metals）
On the 12th, Tokyo gold continued to fall following the sharp drop in NY gold. Gold futures for April were down 22 yen from the previous week’s close at 4,480 yen, and platinum futures for April were up 18 yen at 3,356 yen.
Tokyo gold has continued to fall following NY gold’s further decline. Overnight, it rose temporarily to 4,512 yen, but offered an appealing selling level. With the FOMC meeting looming, the demand-supply environment surrounding gold, which does not yield interest, is not favorable, so Tokyo gold is expected to probe lower. Platinum has shown a recovery but has shed much of its overnight gains. While palladium surged, platinum showed 4,492 yen at one point, but later fell by more than 50 yen, so the overall mood remains weak. For Tokyo gold and platinum, selling on rallies remains prudent. The paralaidium surge this week also demands attention to its movements.

（Tokyo Rubber）
On the 12th, Tokyo rubber was mixed. The front-month November futures were down 0.1 yen from the previous week’s close at 186.9 yen.
Spurred by higher weekend offer prices, Tokyo rubber, which had fallen over the weekend, opened higher. However, buying did not last. As Shanghai rubber continued to rise, the front-month price rose to 188.9 yen after 10 o’clock but was quickly sold again, staying around 187 yen. Export restrictions by producing countries are lifting offer prices but also raising inventories, so the stance should remain on selling rallies.

（Tokyo Corn）
On the 12th, Tokyo corn fell following Chicago’s decline at the start of the week. Front-month May futures were down 60 yen from the previous week’s close at 22,650 yen.
With Chicago corn’s rebound over the weekend, Tokyo opened solidly, but as Chicago resumed falling at 9 o’clock, prices gradually dropped into negative territory. For the early week, rainfall forecasts midweek and the less-than-expected temperature rise over the weekend were factors. The larger impact appears to be the former, undermining the hot-and-dry premise, which led to early selling. Attention is on the crop condition for tomorrow morning. We also want to monitor the condition of U.S. Plains crops, but if the Midwest corn belt’s crop conditions are good and soil moisture is ample, Chicago is likely to move lower again.

（Tokyo U.S. Soybeans）
Tokyo general soybeans were quiet. Front-month April futures were up 100 yen from the previous week’s close at 45,600 yen.
With the June soybeans futures for new harvest starting on the 16th, Tokyo showed almost no movement. Trading became even stricter. The USDA’s supply-and-demand report did not trigger any reaction, and after the new harvest, the area to watch will be the acreage to be announced at month-end. Tokyo is again likely to adopt a selling-on-rally stance.
https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=15873