[Fuji Tomi] Tokyo gold declines after rally; its role as a safe asset fades.

（Tokyo Crude Oil and Petroleum Products）
On the 8th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products sharply fell due to overseas crude oil plunging, with crude oil futures for November at 33,240 yen, down 880 yen from the previous day; gasoline futures for December at 45,700 yen, down 890 yen; and kerosene futures for December at 46,850 yen, down 900 yen.
With the U.S. EIA inventory report turning out quite bearish, overseas oil markets plunged across the board, and the Tokyo oil market also saw a sharp decline. At times crude oil futures slipped below 33,000 yen. In daytime trading, the downtrend narrowed as the yen weakened and overseas crude oil fell, but some aggressive buying emerged, so the decline cannot be seen as a straightforward reflection of overseas crude oil plunging. By the way, due to the rainy season, near-month gasoline futures are again dropping sharply. Refineries are scheduled for regular maintenance, so crude oil stocks are being built up. However, these factors did not become selling signals, and the near-month and deferred months for crude oil and gasoline formed elevated price levels. Global crude oil supply remains ample, so a selling-on-rallies stance remains safe. Tokyo’s failure to fall further suggests a possible weekend rebound. The yen’s appreciation in the 14:00 hour caused some further selling, but despite the stronger yen, the decline in Tokyo was relatively limited, which in turn means Tokyo may have more room to fall.

（Tokyo Precious Metals）
On the 8th, Tokyo gold fell in response to a sharp drop in NY gold. Gold futures for April were 4,521 yen, down 11 yen from the previous day; platinum futures for April were 3,348 yen, down 29 yen.
Ahead of former FBI Director Comey’s congressional testimony on the 8th, the opening content became clear, revealing Trump’s obstruction of justice investigations. However, because the market anticipated this, NY gold plummeted just as expected. NY gold’s drop may temporarily create a peak in the near term. In the afternoon, NY gold disliked the 1,290-dollar resistance and sold off again, forcing Tokyo gold lower. Gold’s role as a safe-haven asset should be considered as having diminished, and Tokyo gold may test 4,500 yen. Platinum has fallen as expected, but the return stance remains the same. A further decline could intensify next week. After information about the Bank of Japan’s policy shift came out just before 14:00, yen appreciation progressed, expanding Tokyo gold’s losses. However, NY gold finally reached the 1,290-dollar level in response to the stronger yen, prompting Tokyo gold to rebound somewhat, and around 15:00 it briefly recovered to the 4,520-yen range, but did not exit the negative territory.

（Tokyo Rubber）
On the 8th, Tokyo rubber continued to fall mainly in the near month. November futures were 181.6 yen, down 3.9 yen from the previous day.
After-hours, selling resumed due to the strong yen. In daytime trading, the near month continued to fall sharply, with near-month dropping below 180 yen, but it did not set a new low from the previous day. However, the near-month drop nearly brought it back to a parity level, and gradually near-month selling diminished, with a strong buyback into the daytime. By noon, the price rose to 185.7 yen, briefly turning positive. Yet 185 yen acted as a resistance. With the 14:00 hour yen appreciation, selling resumed. Fearing further yen strength, a full recovery was not achieved. Night trading is likely to see continued yen-hedging selling.

（Tokyo Maize）
On the 8th, Tokyo corn surged sharply in line with a rapid rise in Chicago, continuing the uptrend. May futures were 22,680 yen, up 280 yen from the previous day.
Chicago’s hot and dry weather in the Corn Belt and Plains led to a significant rally in Chicago, which in turn pushed Tokyo higher. By noon, price levels crossed into the 22,800 yen range, but overnight levels suggested the rise could stall, and Tokyo’s upward momentum was relatively restrained. The notable factor is the large fund net short position in the Chicago corn market. There is still potential for funds to cover and for new buying, suggesting more upside risk. There is weekend anticipation of hot and dry conditions, likely to be prolonged, which could damage corn yields. By the weekend, 23,000 yen could be reached. The supply-demand reports due over the weekend are not expected to be material, so attention should remain on corn belt and Plains weather forecasts, with 23,000 yen seen as a milestone. The advance narrowed due to stronger yen, but the market’s reaction to yen strength seemed somewhat excessive.

（Tokyo U.S. Soybeans）
On the 8th, Tokyo soybeans traded unevenly depending on the stock. May futures were 45,260 yen, up 670 yen from the previous day.
Encouraged by Chicago’s continued rise, Tokyo soybeans also rose. However, gains in Chicago soybeans were offset by spread selling, so Tokyo’s rise was more modest. In contrast, the rapid advance in Chicago produced a strong high-price warning in Tokyo, and a notable drop of nearly 1,000 yen from the high occurred. The previous day's heavy buying was met with a reaction, making the price decline understandable. With the supply-demand report due on the 9th expected to be bearish, Tokyo is likely to remain in an unstable trading pattern going forward.
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