Foreign Exchange Online · Masakazu Sato's Practical Trading Techniques | Techno & Fundamental Analysis for Predicting the Future of the 3 Major Currencies [This Month's Theme | 2021 Exchange Rate Outlook. Expecting a Trend Market after Trump's Exit]
With Mr. Trump’s exit, will the foreign exchange market transition from this current stalemate into a more trend-focused, normal trading environment? The key lies in a complete break from the pandemic era and the revival of interest rate differentials between currencies, represented by U.S. long-term yields. Using my three favorite technical tools, I attempt to forecast the 2021 foreign exchange market.
※This article is a reprint and revision of FX攻略.com’s February 2021 issue. Please note that the market information described in the text may differ from the current market.
Profile of Masakazu Sato
Sato Masakazu. After working at a Japanese bank, he joined Paribas (now BNP Paribas) in France. He has served as Interbank Chief Dealer, Fund Manager, Senior Manager, and other roles. Later, he became Senior Analyst at FX Online, a company with the No.1 annual trading volume. He has been involved in the forex world for over 20 years. He appears on Radio NIKKEI “Stock Full Live Commentary! Stock Channel,” Stock Voice “Market Wide: Foreign Exchange Information,” and regularly provides market information on Yahoo! Finance.
Using MACD to Capture Turning Points: Profit in Ranging Markets Even When Prices Are Stuck
The U.S. presidential election concluded with Mr. Biden’s victory, and vaccine development news helped stock prices rise rapidly in early November. However, the foreign exchange market, including USD/JPY, did not exhibit the large volatility seen during Trump’s 2016 era. 2021 may see the FX world become even less active as the major uncertainty of President Trump leaves the stage. On the other hand, Trump’s exit could foster autonomous trends in the currency market, potentially turning a stuck market into a regime of movement.
This time, using the technical analysis introduced in my latest book, “FX Chart Analysis: The Three Tools” (Cross Media Publishing), I will look at the outlook for major currency pairs in 2021. The three technical tools I employ as the “three tools of technical analysis” are the moving average, MACD, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. These three indicators were also tools I frequently used when I worked as a Chief Dealer at a French bank.
I have given hundreds of seminars on FX Online and have befriended individual investors who have earned over tens of millions of yen in profits from FX. When I asked them about their trading methods, I found that many read the market flow with Ichimoku, while trading on MACD signals such as golden crosses and death crosses formed by MACD and its moving average. Many people confirmed large trends on daily charts while trading using MACD on an hourly chart. Using MACD on an hourly chart can accurately catch the tops and bottoms of price movements over a span of several days.
