Master the Market with Kouno Hiroshi's Market: Enjoy the Market | Episode 12 [Hiroshi Kouno]

Hiroshima Wild Profile

After joining Nikko Securities (now Mizuho Securities) in 1971, he worked as an analyst in the research department. After a stint in the United States, he consistently analyzed information and markets for Japanese stocks. In 1996, he transferred to an asset management company (now Asset Management One), serving as head of the research department, head of the investment department, and then as managing executive officer and head of the Investment Trust Operations Division. He retired in 2012. Since then, he has appeared on TV and radio, among other activities. He has half a century of experience in market analysis centered on Japanese stocks.

Newsletter:https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/salons/8812/

*This article is a reprint/re-edited edition of FX攻略.com February 2021 issue. The market information written in the text may differ from the current market, so please be aware.

*Data is as of the end of November 2020

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The basics of stock price cycles are “one month” and “three months.” Much of what happens in the market can be understood from the 20-day moving average, which is the one-month cycle. I would like to focus first on the deviation rate relative to the 20-day average. From the deviation rate, it becomes clear that, from the March low, the stock price showed exceptional strength in its rebound.

Other themes include “short selling ratio and stock price fluctuations” and “foreign investors’ buying and selling behavior,” and finally I would like to add considerations about the price-earnings ratio (PER) of Japanese stocks.

Viewing the Deviation from the 20-Day Average

As I said, much can be understood from the 20-day average, but what I want to emphasize is the “deviation rate,” “the slope of the 20-day average itself,” and “the comparison between the 20-day average and the 20 days earlier average.”