The Future of Foreign Exchange Markets 第130回［田嶋智太郎］
Tomotaro Tajima Profile
Economic analyst. CEO of Alfinns. Born in Tokyo in 1964. After graduating from Keio University, he shifted careers following his work at currently Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. He analyzes and researches a wide range from finance and economics in general to strategic corporate management, and ultimately personal asset formation and fund management. He serves as a lecturer at lectures, seminars, and training organized by private companies, financial institutions, newspapers, local governments, and various business associations, with an annual lecture count of about 150. He has written and contributed comments in numerous print media, such as Weekly Gendai “Rules of Net Trading” and Examina “Money Maestro Training Course.” He also writes columns on many websites about stocks, foreign exchange, etc., and is highly regarded as a stock and forex strategist. He has also written for the Home Economy section of Jiyu Kokuminsha's “Kobo Knowledge of Modern Terms.” After regular appearances on TV (TV Asahi “Yajiuma Plus,” BS Asahi “Sunday Online”) and radio (Mainichi Broadcasting “Keen-chan’s Asaichi Radio”), he now serves as a regular commentator on Nikkei CNBC’s “Market Wrap” and Daiwa Securities Information TV’s “Economy Marche.” His main DVDs include “Very Easy to Understand. Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Introduction” and “Very Easy to Understand. Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Practical Technical Analysis.” His major books include “Wealth Reconsideration Manual” (Paru Publishing), “FX Chart ‘Formula for Profit’” (Archemix), “Why Can FX Make You Asset-Rich?” (Texts), and many others. His latest publication is “How to Profit by Riding the Rising U.S. Economy.”
*This article is a reproduction and re-editing of an article from FX攻略.com February 2021 issue. Please note that the market information written in the text may differ from current market conditions.
A lineup of bullish “actors” appears and the market leans toward risk appetite
As is known, in the U.S. presidential election this time, former Vice President Biden of the Democratic Party is deemed the definite winner. However, President Trump has only reluctantly agreed to begin the transition process, and as of writing, has not yet admitted defeat in the presidential election.
Of course, with GSA Administrator Emily Murphy’s approval on November 23 to begin the transition process, the unnecessary crisis temporarily lessens, a view that the market has welcomed greatly.
If the process does not proceed swiftly, during the political vacuum, provocations might be launched by China, North Korea, Russia, and others. Also, delays in the transition could hinder Biden’s prioritized supply of a coronavirus vaccine. Therefore, naturally, the market welcomed the start of the U.S. presidential transition process, and U.S. and Japanese stock prices rose significantly.
Around the same time, positive vaccine news from several global pharmaceutical manufacturers emerged, further boosting stock prices.
Moreover, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former chair of the Federal Reserve, becoming U.S. Treasury Secretary in the Biden administration strengthened market expectations and reassurance. If Yellen takes the post, the synergy between monetary and fiscal policy would tighten greatly, making the U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic more certain, according to the market’s reading.
With so many “actors” lined up—Biden’s victory, vaccine development progress, and the potential appointment of Yellen—the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting the 30,000 mark seems only natural.
