Outlook on Mountain Descent in the Unending Corona Crisis

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The human brain hates emptiness. That is where everything begins.


David McLain
'Trap of Thought: 48 Ways the Brain Tricks You (NihonBunko)'
pp.36

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Hello, this is Shimoyama.



“If I can’t perform live, it’s tough.”

A friend working in the music industry said so.



On platforms like YouTube where revenue is growing,

the portion of income coming from live merch sales is often large, and

the inability to hold live shows due to the pandemic hurts a lot.



Some people leave seats empty between patrons, halve attendance,

then stream the live process as video

to secure revenue.



Audience members can’t sing, for example.



Also, Hello! Project, which houses idol groups, tends to

host “concerts that only sing ballads.”



Many artists are taking steps to make live performances feasible.



However, there are still limits.



For example, in a rock band concert you can’t hold back your voice.

That’s unthinkable, right?



If we worry about COVID

there are many things in the world that cannot operate as a result.



We hope vaccines and other effective countermeasures will be developed as soon as possible,

but the future still looks long...





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Half of Tokyo residents hope for Olympic postponement or cancellation

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In Japan as well, Tokyo and Hokkaido are among areas where infections continue to be reported,

but looking worldwide,

the number of infections is rising enormously.



Finally, the number of infections has surpassed 10 million.



The United States, Brazil, and India are particularly notable.



There were guesses that as summer comes and temperatures rise, the number of infections would be suppressed,

but apparently they were too optimistic.



We don’t see an end in sight yet, but

the concern now is whether Tokyo will host the Olympics.





If this situation persists until around autumn,

the possibility of cancellation becomes more real.



If the Olympics are canceled, Japan’s economy could fall into a very dire state.

Consumption that had been anticipated to surge with the Olympics would disappear entirely,

and stadiums and other construction costs would not be recouped.



Even while the Olympics are held,

the profitability of maintaining buildings is questionable, so,

if the Olympics are canceled, the damage would be immense.





By the way, what do you think about the Olympics?



Recently, results of surveys related to the Olympics

were reported by international media.



“Half of Tokyo residents oppose Olympics in 2021: poll”

(Source;https://www.yahoo.com/news/half-tokyo-residents-oppose-olympics-2021-poll-072328545.html)



In Japan this wasn’t reported much, but the results of a telephone survey show

that about half of Tokyo residents want the Olympics postponed or canceled.

Considering the current situation, this is probably natural,



since the pandemic has brought no bright news since day one.



There is plenty of negative material, after all.

CLO discussions aside…



In this situation, I continue to trade from a long-term,

sell-side perspective.

(Note: this is margin trading.)



That said, I don’t trade only by selling; I hold some buys as well

and hedge risks in my trading.





In this way, hedging risks

and trading with hedges is extremely important,

and I’ve been emphasizing it for a long time,

but perhaps some people still don’t understand.



From my many years of teaching trading,

I’ve learned that when conveying something, the same words can resonate at the right moment with some people

and not resonate at all with others.





The same words can strike home depending on the situation of the listener,

while at other times they don’t affect at all.





Perhaps what I’ve just said

hasn’t hit you yet, but…



If you ever make mistakes in trading

in the future,

the importance of hedging will become painfully clear.



Holding both buy and sell positions

gives you an edge in trading

that you may come to notice, I think.



Failing is painful,

but it is also a learning opportunity.





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Reasons why many people fail to learn from mistakes

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I said that “mistakes are opportunities to learn,”

but in reality, many people

don’t maximize those chances.



They tend to repeat the same mistakes over and over.



Many fail to learn from their mistakes.



Why does this happen?



One thing you can say is because the brain deceives you

that’s why.



One of the brain’s traits is that it dislikes “emptiness.”

In other words, it cannot tolerate situations where you don’t understand something.



For example, when you fail at something and









you think, “I can’t figure out the cause,”

the brain will fabricate an answer on its own.



Even if that answer is wrong,

you will accept it as the truth,









and repeat the same mistake again.





Therefore, of course,

it is important to think for yourself, but

after you think, it’s also vital to receive appropriate feedback.





Whether you can get objective opinions

from people who are ahead of you

in their field can greatly affect your growth rate.



If you are

repeatedly making the same mistakes and feeling your growth stall,



please consider seeking objective feedback as well.





Now, please stay with me until the end of today’s message.

Thank you for reading.




Keizo Shimoyama