【Fujitomi】Tokyo gold edges up slightly as yen depreciation and NY gold plunge intersect

(Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products)
On the 2nd, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products fell due to a steep drop in overseas crude oil, but the decline narrowed on the back of yen weakness. The crude oil futures contract for November is 3,490 yen lower than the previous day at 34,990 yen, the gasoline futures contract for December is 460 yen lower at 47,540 yen, and the kerosene futures contract for December is 320 yen lower at 48,880 yen.
Although the U.S. EIA inventory statistics were bullish, the rise did not last, overseas crude oil then plunged, and Tokyo oil markets were pressured. However, with the yen weakening, the drop was not as severe as that in overseas crude. The crude oil near-month price briefly hit a low in the morning, but recovered to the 35,000 yen level on the back of yen weakness that welcomed the stock market rally. The Nikkei Stock Average, which resumed trading at noon, surged further, but yen weakness began to be restrained and oil prices continued to tread water. The overseas crude market has been focused on the global oil supply glut, and stock prices could not provide support. Now, the gasoline near-month price is dropping sharply, suggesting that gasoline demand is receding ahead of the rainy season. Tokyo crude oil is likely to be flexible for the time being.

(Tokyo precious metals)
On the 2nd, Tokyo gold rose modestly amid a tug-of-war between yen weakness and a sharp drop in New York gold; the April gold futures are up 3 yen from the previous day at 4,509 yen, and the April white metal futures are down 38 yen at 3,345 yen.
After strong U.S. economic indicators, the Dow rose sharply. Consequently, the Nikkei stock average also surged, and Tokyo gold started with a sizable rise supported by yen weakness. However, New York gold disliked that stock strength and collapsed, dropping to 1,261.3 dollars, causing Tokyo gold to briefly enter negative territory. Later, backed by a recovery in New York gold, it returned to positive territory. The outcome of the U.S. employment data to be released tonight will determine whether Tokyo gold can avoid another drop, but with the FBI director’s congressional testimony scheduled for the 8th, it could present a buying opportunity. A drop during the night session is viewed as a buying opportunity. On the other hand, white gold (platinum) is falling due to weak market conditions, but the strategy of selling on the rally remains in place.

(Tokyo rubber)
On the 2nd, Tokyo rubber briefly rose but was sold off due to weak fundamentals. The November futures contract is 4.7 yen lower at 194.0 yen.
In the morning, Tokyo rubber showed a rebound due to yen weakness and a sharp rise in the New York Dow. The Nikkei surged, and there were moments when the nearby month rebounded to 201.7 yen, but selling above 200 yen provided selling pressure, and by noon it fell sharply, dropping nearly 10 yen from the high. With production increases becoming a factor, the near-term outlook remained weak, and weak Chinese economic indicators also provided selling pressure. Next week, it is believed prices could test 180 yen, but given the production increase cycle, a decline is natural.

(Tokyo corn)
On the 2nd, Tokyo corn followed the sharp rise in the nearby month with gains in the futures (near-month). The May futures are 90 yen higher at 22,350 yen.
In the early part of the day, there was little movement due to yen weakness, and the market was soft, with the nearby month breaking below 22,200 yen. As stock prices rose and the yen weakened rapidly, the market did not react much, and by 10 o’clock it managed only to recover to 22,250 yen. By 11 o’clock, it had returned to the 22,300 yen range, and it was expected to be in a stalemate for a while. However, a sudden sharp rise in the nearby July futures triggered stop-buy orders across the board, and the nearby month showed 22,700 yen. The nearby July month appears to be a settlement-driven movement, but even accounting for the yen weakness, the near-month has been overbought. With sunny weather forecast in the U.S. corn belt from Sunday, temperatures are expected to rise, which could improve yields. While remaining cautious about the yen, I see selling opportunities in the night session. Chicago is expected to be weaker from the weekend into early next week.

(Tokyo U.S.-grown soybeans)
On the 2nd, Tokyo futures for U.S.-grown soybeans were mixed, depending on volume. The April near-month is 160 yen lower at 45,400 yen.
Tokyo generic soybeans are mixed. The front month has surged on settlement-related trading, but there was no impact on the near-month futures. In the U.S. Corn Belt, clear weather is expected after Sunday, which should advance soybean planting considerably. A drop below $9 in Chicago is only a matter of time, and the early morning rise provided selling opportunities. The price spikes up are continuing to be sold into.
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