Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [November 9 Issue]
Bitcoin has risen significantly since last week
and today it has reached 1.6 million yen
in value.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
From the price range of 1.44 million yen last week,
Bitcoin rose sharply,
and in a single daily candle (i.e., one day)
it breached 1.5 million yen and recorded 1.6 million yen.
After that, in the U.S. presidential election
the news of Mr. Biden’s victory being certain
caused a temporary drop, but since then
from Sunday yesterday it rebounded and rose again
to surpass 1.6 million yen once more.
As I have been telling you since last week
the goal price was around 1.5 million yen in 2019
and that was one target price
but it broke through it rapidly,
fell back to 1.5 million yen, and then recorded 1.6 million yen again,
which technically looks like a clean uptrend.
Some of my subscribers, including those who have been investing in Bitcoin
since the 2020 decline, have expressed joy.
Bitcoin has reached its highest price in recent years,
so most people are in profit, I get the impression.
Next, I will check Bitcoin’s weekly chart.
Already it has broken above last year’s peak of 1.5 million yen
and has already reached bubble-era prices.
If you draw the line for bubble-era prices,
it suggests a resistance around 1.8 million yen,
2.0 million yen,
and 2.2 million yen.
Those price levels seem to form resistance lines.
Additionally, from the end of 2017’s peak of 2.2 million yen
to the 2019 price of 1.5 million yen,
if you draw the downtrend line through that period,
you can see that in May 2020 that line was broken and an uptrend began.
From this latest Bitcoin rise, among investors
there are opinions that
the bubble has already burst,
that Bitcoin could break the 2 million yen milestone by year-end,
and so on.
[What could impede Bitcoin’s rise]
is precisely the momentum that seems unstoppable for Bitcoin.
Some say they wish they had bought Bitcoin during this rise,
but I will also examine the negative factors surrounding this rise.
- The economy improves as vaccines for the coronavirus are developed.
- If asset prices crash detached from the real economy, the crypto market could also fall.
This is said by some.
Regarding the coronavirus,
with the vaccine, the number of patients will decrease,
and the economy will recover in the future, becoming positive,
so, Bitcoin, which has been viewed as a safe asset,
may be sold temporarily.
In fact, today, November 9,
Pfizer announced that its vaccine has been developed and found effective,
and this news is circulating.
Depending on how the economy will fare, Bitcoin could decline as a result.
So what should we do then?
Another point is that the general public continues to see stock prices rising despite the economy stagnating due to the financial crisis.
This may be influenced by factors such as the U.S. presidential election, but
the movement of stock prices far from the real economy can eventually burst.
I think so too, and
Bitcoin has often moved with the Dow,
and if it falls, Bitcoin may be affected as well.
As for Bitcoin’s rise,
as I already explained,
it rose more than 10% from 1.4 million yen last week to 1.6 million yen.
And Bitcoin’s market capitalization has
surpassed 30 trillion yen, easily overtaking Toyota’s 20 trillion yen.
With a 30 trillion yen market cap,
raising it by 10% would require around 2–3 trillion yen of capital inflows.
That would be huge if it happened in a single day.
Recently, Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend,
so a strategy that accounts for potential downside is necessary,
in my view.
A reference article immediately after Bitcoin surpassed 1.6 million yen
is
[Ethereum 2.0 update expected by December 1 this year]
The major upgrade for Ethereum, Ethereum 2.0
is planned to start from December 1 once the required deposit amount
is reached.
Naturally, after this news Ethereum has risen.
In Ethereum 2.0,
the POW system will change to POS,and by depositing Ethereum you can participate in staking
to receive estimated interest rates of 6%–20%.
Staking by depositing Ethereum is a very attractive aspect.
Ethereum, aside from Bitcoin, is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap,
and is relatively more stable after Bitcoin.
However, at present the minimum staking unit for Ethereum is 32 ETH
(about 1.5 million yen),
which is a relatively large amount.
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