【Fujitomi】Chicago grains broadly slumped across the board, with large declines

（ＮＹ贵金属）
On the 30th, New York gold fell for the first time in three trading days. The near-month August Gold futures settled at $1,265.70 per ounce, down $5.70 from the previous week’s close, and the near-month July Platinum futures settled at $941.10, down $21.80 from the previous week’s close.
The heavy resistance around the price level in the August near-month, which is the active month, and the widening of the decline once European trading began contributed to the drop. Expectations of a rate hike at the June U.S. FOMC remained strong, and with month-end factors aiding the decline, prices fell. Meanwhile, European stock markets were also losing their upward momentum, increasing near-term uncertainty. Owing to the uncertainties around the Trump administration, prices were kept in the $1260s on risk aversion. NY Platinum had fallen sharply, but this was attributed to positioning ahead of the gradual unwinding in June for the near-month July. Given weak fundamentals, rollover to the near-month contract is expected to be passive, with a focus on liquidating long positions.

（WTI Crude Oil・NY Petroleum Products・North Sea Brent）
On the 30th, WTI crude oil temporarily plunged, but in response to NY gasoline’s rise, it recovered into positive territory by the settlement to indicate a recovery. WTI near-month July futures settled at $49.66, down $0.14 from the previous close; Brent near-month July futures settled at $94.10, down $0.45. RBOB gasoline July futures were down 0.18 cents at 162.43 cents, and NY Heating Oil near-month July futures were down 1.35 cents at 155.35 cents.
In the early session, concerns over increased U.S. crude production led to a test of the downside, with WTI July futures dropping as low as $49.03. Since OPEC decided not to expand production cuts, concerns about the global supply-demand balance worsened. On the other hand, domestic U.S. gasoline demand was expected to rise after Memorial Day, leading to substantial buying from low levels for gasoline and helping push WTI higher. For a while, U.S. gasoline demand trends looked to be the key. Reuters’ survey of analysts’ pre-release inventory expectations showed crude stockpiles down 2.8 million barrels and gasoline stocks down 1.0 million barrels from the previous week. After these expectations became clear, NY gasoline retreated into negative territory again, and WTI also fell back.

（CBOT Soybeans）
On the 30th, CBOT soybeans marked the lowest in 14 months and fell sharply. The near-month July futures were down 14.50 cents at 912.00 cents per bushel, and the new-crop November futures were down 10.50 cents at 918.75 cents.
Continued concerns about a global oversupply after the holidays, with persistent selling from South America, pushed Chicago to further declines. In China, rumors circulated that domestic crush margins had worsened, leading to continued import focus on inexpensive South American soybeans and accelerating the decline. Brazilian selling was also observed in the Chicago session after the holidays. The pre-closing consensus for the U.S. average progress rate of planting was 68% (range 60%–75%) according to Reuters-compiled analyst estimates.

（CBOT Corn）
On the 30th, CBOT corn fell sharply, dropping more than the gains seen before the holiday. Near-month July futures were down 7.50 cents at 366.75 cents, and the new-crop December futures were down 6.75 cents at 385.75 cents.
Before the holidays, concerns about weather risks in the U.S. corn belt supported buying, but the anticipated unfavorable weather did not materialize, and early after the holidays, selling dominated. There was sporadic rainfall over the weekend, but it is not expected to affect yields. More rainfall is forecast for this week, but only temporarily. Near-month July futures fell below 3.70 dollars, again below the 200-day moving average. After Chicago’s close, the first-ever crop condition reports for the season will be released. The pre-release consensus for the U.S. crop condition (Excellent to Good) is 68% (range 65%–71%).
https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=15567