【Fujitomi】Tokyo gold is bought on geopolitical risk, surges sharply

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
On the 23rd, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products fell due to a double hit from a stronger yen and cheap overseas crude oil. Crude oil futures for October delivery were down 260 yen from the previous day at 36,860 yen, gasoline futures for November delivery were down 290 yen at 49,580 yen, and kerosene futures for November delivery were down 390 yen at 49,550 yen.
Tokyo oil market fell. With the drop in Tokyo market during the day trading due to the stronger yen and the price collapse seen in overseas crude oil, there was a pronounced drop in the day trading. WTI fell below $51 before 11:00, and slid to $50.78 just before 11:30. Although there were forecasts of bullish inventory statistics beforehand, they were not seen as supportive. It seemed compelled to be bought aggressively ahead of the April OPEC conference. Still, Tokyo managed to limit the decline, and the drop was limited. Expectations for the U.S. API inventory statistics released the next morning appeared strong, and many buyers believed that WTI and Brent would be bought again before the OPEC meeting. From 14:00 onward, Tokyo saw a slow rebound in WTI/Brent and, fearing the yen strength and falling stock prices, resumed selling and updated the morning lows. Even so, the decline was still modest.

（Tokyo precious metals）
On the 23rd, Tokyo gold continued to rise in line with gains in NY gold. Gold futures for April delivery were up 13 yen at 4,491 yen, and silver futures for April delivery were up 33 yen at 3,398 yen.
Tokyo gold continued to rise given the bullish tone in NY gold. In the morning, the yen strengthened on rising Trump risk, but NY gold also rose. Additionally, the explosion at a concert venue in Manchester heightened geopolitical risk, which supported NY gold to update the previous high. Tokyo gold rose while absorbing the yen strength, maintaining around the 4,490 yen level in the day trading. With the terror incident in the UK, geopolitical risk buying could gain momentum during European hours. After 14:30, selling in Tokyo gold due to yen strength eased off.

（Tokyo rubber）
On the 23rd, Tokyo rubber benefited from a sharp rise in the nearby contract, and the deferred contracts followed with gains. The October contract for the deferred month rose 5.4 yen to 233.1 yen.
Shanghai rubber fell back, and the yen strengthened, but Tokyo rubber, aided by the sharp rise in the nearby month, could not be fully sold on weak external factors, and the near-month rose above 230 yen before 9:30. After 10:30, it broke above the previous high of 233.0 yen, gaining momentum, and by just before 10:40, it showed 235.0 yen. The June near-month rose 20 yen at 10:00, indicating a rapid surge, and the spread in the deferred month could widen toward the 240 yen range. If this continues, the near-month could see 240 yen as a comfortable target. The favorable buying trend seemed likely to continue. Before 14:30, the near-month surpassed 235 yen, but subsequent profit-taking pushed it down to 211.2 yen at one point before later recovering to the 233 yen range. While price declines were notable in the market, rubber declines from peak were contained.

（Tokyo corn）
On the 23rd, Tokyo deferred corn futures fell toward the close. The May contract rose 200 yen from the previous day to 22,180 yen.
Following a slight rise in Chicago corn overnight, Tokyo saw more buying in after-hours. Although the yen strengthened, expectations for delayed planting supported a somewhat aggressive buy in after-hours. In daytime trading, the yen's move higher caused Tokyo to fall below 22,400 yen at times. It hovered around 22,400 yen for a while, but as the dollar strengthened, Chicago’s slight firmness helped Tokyo rebound to the 22,400 yen range. After the Chicago close, planting progress data released unexpectedly weak, showing no delays in planting. In the eastern US corn belt, field work days were numerous, and delays in planting were not evident. With weak early-week sentiment and potential further selling in Chicago, Tokyo was somewhat aggressively supported. In the near term, selling pressure appears to dominate. In the 14:00 hour, as Chicago’s decline widened, the deferred month briefly turned negative again.

（Tokyo soybeans from the United States）
On the 23rd, Tokyo general soybeans traded on a watchful day. The April futures were up 60 yen to 46,650 yen.
Tokyo general soybeans remained an extremely thinly traded market with subdued activity. Although Chicago soybeans rose again at the start of the week, the stronger yen and mixed factors created a tug-of-war. No notable delays in soybean planting were observed; planting in the Southern Hemisphere export rush remained something to watch, and potential selling at the current high levels persisted.
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