【Fujitomi】Overseas crude oil surges, WTI on the near-month basis rebounds into the 50-dollar range for the first time in a month

(NY Precious Metals)
On the 19th, New York gold closed higher on light trading. New York Comex June gold was up 0.8 dollars at 1,253.6 dollars, and New York Comex July platinum was up 3.4 dollars at 940.2 dollars.
The dollar weakness was supportive, but the gains were capped by the sharp rise in the Dow Jones. Iran's presidential election will be held on the 19th, and initially President Rouhani, expected to win re-election, faced a difficult situation, leading to hedging purchases as a risk-off factor, helping the price recover to around 1,250 dollars. The election result is likely to become a factor for next week's New York gold. Also, corruption scandals in the Trump administration have surfaced, making dollar weakness a factor. Despite the Dow's strong rise, weekend movements could accelerate dollar weakness, and if next week's Dow futures fall, a recovery to around 1,260 dollars for New York gold could become visible; however, if a hardline leader rises to the presidency, a recovery to the 1,260-dollar range is expected regardless of the dollar market.

(WTI Crude, NY Oil Products, North Sea Brent)
On the 19th, WTI crude rose back to the 50-dollar range on a near-term basis, marking the fastest climb in about a month. WTI near-month July was up 1.01 dollars at 50.67 dollars, Brent July was up 1.01 dollars at 53.61 dollars. RBOB gasoline June was up 0.0460 dollar at 1.6523 dollars, and NY heating oil June was up 0.0374 dollar at 1.5827 dollars.
With the OPEC meeting looming on the 25th, voices supporting extending production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia are growing. Major oil producers such as Iraq and Iran have indicated willingness to comply as well. Currently only Saudi Arabia has achieved its production-cut target, but there is a conjecture that compliance by other producers will create additional effects from further reductions, fueling the rally. The Dow's sharp rise is also seen as reducing the risk of the Trump administration scandals, giving momentum to the upside. Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil rigs in operation rose by 8 from the previous week to 720, the 18th straight week of increase, but this did not become a selling factor. In the near term, attention will be on Iran's presidential election, and it is expected to be a factor driving fluctuations at the start of next week, with market participants watching closely.

(CBOT Soybeans)
On the 19th, CBOT soybeans rose in response to the rally in the Brazilian real. Near-term July was up 8.5 cents at 953.25 cents, new-c crop November was up 8.0 cents at 952.75 cents.
The Brazilian currency’s weakness had caused a sharp drop the previous day, but the real showed a contrasting move, prompting weekend buyers. Improved U.S. soybean demand is once again expected to support the rally, but it seems to be a rebound from the previous day’s decline. In reality, demand improvement is uncertain, and some expect selling again at the start of next week. Today’s estimated net buy by funds is about 4,000 lots.

(CBOT Corn)
On the 19th, CBOT corn sharply rebounded. Near-term July was up 6.25 cents at 372.25 cents, new-crop December was up 5.75 cents at 389.75 cents.
A rally driven by the surge in crude oil and dollar weakness encouraged speculative buying and aided weekend cover. Near-term July again moved into the 3.70-dollar area. In that range, delays in planting caused by rainfall in the U.S. Corn Belt Eastern region were recognized. Because soil moisture is somewhat excessive, fears of planting delays with weekend rainfall persisted. Although it again rose above the 200-day moving average on the 20th, the development remains capped by the Ichimoku cloud. Excessive soil moisture and concerns about planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt East had been noted before, but a shift in market mood due to the Dow's sharp rise seems to have led to renewed recognition. Today’s estimated net buying by funds is about 10,000 lots.
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