Kawasaki Dollaremon-ryū Exchange Weather Forecast｜10th Monthly Forecast October Edition [Kawasaki Dollaremon]
In FX, this series by Kawasaki Doruemon places emphasis on the temporal element. From this issue, as a "Currency Weather Forecast," he will share concrete trading strategies from a statistical approach.
*This article is a reprint and revision of an article from FX Strategies.com, November 2020 issue. Please note that the market information described in the text may differ from the current market.
Kawasaki Doruemon Profile
Kawasaki Doruemon. Feeling limited by discretionary trading, he searched for a system trading method that could profit with minimal mental burden. Through various simulations, he completed the Guruguru Train.
Blog：Kawasaki Doruemon’s FX Blog
Twitter：https://twitter.com/kawasakidoruemo
YouTube：https://www.youtube.com/user/koutyan0610/featured/
Is October prone to Yen weakness?
This time, we will introduce October statistical data from the currency weather forecast based on past candlestick data.
First, let’s look at the monthly statistical data. Table ① shows the October monthly data for the past 20 years. Looking at it, the number of bullish candles for USD/JPY is 14, GBP/JPY is 13, AUD/JPY is 14, and NZD/JPY is 13, indicating that several cross-yen pairs have a higher number of bullish candles. From this, we can infer that October tends to be yen-weakening seasonality. However, there are also a fair number of bearish candles, so caution is required.
Additionally, October draws attention to emerging-market currencies. Table ② counts the monthly candles for Mexican peso/yen and Turkish lira/yen from October 2006 onward; the number of bullish candles for MXN/JPY is 10 and for TRY/JPY is 9, more than bearish candles. This suggests October may be a season favorable to buying emerging-market currencies.
