【Fujitomi】Tokyo gold falls sharply as it fears a drop in other precious metals

（Tokyo crude oil and refined petroleum products）
On the 19th, Tokyo crude oil and refined petroleum products continued to rise on expectations of further production cuts. The October contract for crude oil futures was up 390 yen from the previous day at 36,340 yen, the November contract for gasoline futures was up 420 yen at 49,180 yen, and the November contract for kerosene futures was up 330 yen at 49,130 yen.
The Tokyo oil market continued to rise. In after-hours trading, a double hit from a further drop in overseas crude oil and a stronger yen caused crude futures to fall below 35,000 yen, but subsequent yen weakness and higher crude priced recovered to the 36,000 yen range. In daytime trading, it hovered around the 36,000 yen level. Ahead of noon, WTI near-month July contract rose into the 50-dollar range, exceeding recent highs. Observations of possible OPEC additional cuts supported sentiment. Although Tokyo pulled back from gains, with the yen weakening further after noon, buying resumed. With the OPEC summit on the 25th approaching, buying driven by hopes for further cuts is expected to be favorable. However, short-term buying is prudent. In the crude market, attention is also on Iran's presidential election, which is of interest.

（Tokyo precious metals）
On the 19th, Tokyo gold fell sharply, pressured by declines in other precious metals. The April contract for gold futures was down 26 yen from the previous day at 4,463 yen, and the April contract for platinum futures was down 31 yen at 3,348 yen.
Tokyo precious metals were in full decline. Gold, following the price drops in other precious metals, was sold off sharply. Although safe-haven demand was expected to push gold higher, it fell from a high of around $1,265 to around $1,240, worsening the outlook for gold. The political scandal surrounding President Trump triggered a plunge in palladium, followed by silver. Platinum faced renewed recognition of reduced auto-catalyst demand and was heavily sold. Gold bulls are hopeful for Iran’s presidential election, and attention will first be paid to the result. It is expected to be decided after a runoff on the 26th if no candidate surpasses the majority by the early hours of the 21st Japan time. If hardliners win, New York gold could rebound to the 1,260 range, but first we wait for the results.

（Tokyo Rubber）
On the 19th, Tokyo rubber rose modestly amid volatility. The October contract for futures was up 1.6 yen from the previous day at 224.9 yen.
In after-hours trading, Tokyo rubber fell further to the 216 yen area due to a stronger yen and a continued decline in NY Dow futures, but subsequently the yen weakened sharply and the Dow rose, leading to a big round of buying for Tokyo rubber in the morning, with the front-month opening at 221.8 yen. In the end, it recovered about 10 yen from its lows, pulling back the gains. Given the change in the overnight situation, a weekend event could cause a major shift in early week conditions, so a cautious mood dominated around noon, with activity around 224 yen for the front month.

（Tokyo Corn）
On the 19th, Tokyo corn rebounded on tentative buying. The May contract for futures was up 100 yen from the previous day at 22,100 yen.
In after-hours trading, it fell to 21,810 yen due to a double hit from a stronger yen and a sharp Chicago decline, but during daytime trading it showed resistance to further declines, remaining around 22,000 yen. Chicago had reopened lower than the previous close, the yen staying relatively strong, but selling pressure eased. As a result, the price appeared somewhat inflated. The result of Iran’s presidential election over the weekend is expected to destabilize financial markets, so new positions at the start of the week are considered prudent. Market attention to the weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has waned, but it remains something to monitor.

（Tokyo soybeans）
On the 19th, Tokyo led soybeans rose. The April contract for futures was up 230 yen from the previous day at 46,900 yen.
They were rebounding from the previous day’s sharp drop. Chicago fell by about 20 cents from the previous settlement, but the yen’s decline and weekend-related buying helped to halt the decline. Although the drop may not be fully recovered, liquidity is slim, so the rebound is inevitable. The Chicago market’s near-term bearishness remains high, so Tokyo’s rebound selling continues as is.
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