The Tide of the Market by "Supply and Demand Demon" Tetsuo Inoue: Professional Market Analysis Know-How and Notable Stocks Revealed! | Episode 8

Tetsuo Inoue Profile

Inoue Tetsuo. Representative of Spring Capital, certified member of the Japanese Securities Analysts Association. After graduating from Sophia University, he served as head of the investment department at a domestic insurance company, then transitioned to Chief Strategist and Head of Japanese Equity Investments at UAM Japan Inc. (now Old Mutual Group). Subsequently, he held similar positions at Proud Investment Advisory and MCP Group, one of Asia’s largest fund-of-funds management companies, before striking out on his own. He is known as the “demand and supply demon,” and has served as a personality on Nikkei CNBC TV programs “Evening Express” and “IR Strategy: Market Breakthrough,” as well as on Radio NIKKEI’s “Asazai.”

His newsletter “Trends in the Market,” which analyzes stock market directions from his unique perspective using original technical analysis and demand-supply trends, is available. The video school “The Winners’ Screening – Stock Hybrid Battle –” hosted by Inoue and B-comm co-host Shintaro Sakamoto provides stock market explanations and picks, and is well received on GogoJungle (GogoJungle).

Newsletter:Trends in the Market
Video School:The Winners’ Screening – Stock Hybrid Battle –

*This article is a reprint/re-edit from FX攻略.com November 2020 issue. Please note that the market information written in the text may differ from current market conditions.

Q2–Q4 GDP Review

On August 17, Japan’s preliminary GDP for April–June 2020 was released, with real GDP down 7.8% quarter-on-quarter and an annualized rate of decline of 27.8%, the worst since the postwar era. However, it is certain that the figures for July–September will show a rebound, and the key thing is how much the year-on-year real decrease translates to in actual terms.

Therefore, using last year’s Q2 100 as a base and applying quarter-on-quarter changes, the figure becomes 89.9, indicating Japan’s real GDP fell by about 10% over the year. This decline is roughly on par with the United States’ 9.5% real decrease, and is smaller than Germany’s 11.7%, France’s 19.0%, and Spain’s 22.1%. While other countries experienced two consecutive quarters of negative growth, Japan, under the impact of the raised consumption tax, experienced three consecutive quarters of negative growth, but in year-on-year comparisons, it is by no means relatively inferior.

Looking at the breakdown, the 7.8% quarter-on-quarter decrease consisted of domestic demand at △4.8% and external demand at △3.0%; exports, a component of external demand, fell by △18.5% quarter-on-quarter. If you apply the same calculations to personal consumption, fixed capital formation, and exports, personal consumption is 88.9, fixed capital formation 95.6, and exports 76.9, making the drop in exports particularly clear.