[Fujitomi] Tokyo oil market shows a rebound toward the close and rebounds

（Tokyo Crude and Petroleum Products）
On the 18th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products fluctuated but were bought back toward the close. The October crude oil futures contract rose by 230 yen from the previous day to 35,950 yen, the November gasoline futures contract rose by 170 yen to 48,760 yen, and the November kerosene futures contract rose by 130 yen to 48,800 yen.
Driven by a bullish U.S. EIA inventory report, both WTI and Brent surged, but did not reach the highs seen recently. Signs of support included a decline in U.S. crude production for the first time in a while and two straight weeks of rising gasoline demand. However, NY gasoline fell on fear of the sharp drop in the NY Dow, and as a result both WTI and Brent gave up much of their gains from the highs, causing the Tokyo oil market to follow with a smaller rise. The rapid appreciation of the yen also served as a selling factor in Tokyo, with the crude futures slipping below 36,000 yen easily. In daytime trading, losses remained limited, but with the yen strengthening again and overseas crude oil prices falling, the market could not resist and gradually moved lower. By just after 10 o’clock, crude futures lagged to a negative territory, hitting a low for the night session. However, as the yen’s strength and overseas oil prices stabilized, the crude futures recovered quickly, limiting the negative move temporarily. We should also be prepared for the WTI near-month July contract to dip below 49 dollars. Tokyo gasoline near-month futures showed a notable rise.

（Tokyo Precious Metals）
On the 18th, Tokyo gold rose as NY gold surged and the strong yen move was absorbed. Gold futures for April were up 8 yen from the previous day at 4,489 yen, while April platinum futures were down 34 yen at 3,379 yen.
Under the surge in NY gold and the rapid yen appreciation, Tokyo gold moved in a tumultuous pattern during the night session and finished higher. In daytime trading, the yen’s strength and the rise in NY gold intersected. NY gold fluctuated around 1,260 dollars, while Tokyo gold sharply moved down to around 4,490 yen before noon, influenced by NY gold's softness. After noon, NY gold moved around the 1,260-dollar level again, bringing a strong market tone and pushing the price to the 4,490 yen level again, achieving the morning’s high. In contrast, Tokyo platinum fell sharply. Even with NY gold's strong market tone, 950 dollars remained a barrier, and the continued rapid decline in NY palladium acted as a restraint. By around 2 p.m., NY gold fell below 1,260 dollars again, but with the yen weakening, Tokyo gold traded in the 4,490 yen range, maintaining the morning’s high.

（Tokyo Rubber）
On the 18th, Tokyo rubber, focusing on near-month futures, fell sharply but narrowed its losses toward the close. The near-month October contract fell 6.4 yen to 223.3 yen.
Profit-taking from the price peaks led to a decline in night-session Tokyo rubber. Amid concerns of a shortage of delivery, the front month surged, and the heavy gains in the near-month months influenced aggressive buying, but with rising production, price resistance led to a pause in the advance. In daytime trading, the rapid yen appreciation and the NY Dow’s sharp drop caused losses to widen from the morning, dropping below 220 yen just after 10 a.m., plunging to as low as 218.0 yen. However, since the front-month decline was limited, by noon prices recovered to the 220 yen area and the decline paused. In the 2 p.m. period, a weaker yen was welcomed, and by shortly before 3 p.m. Tokyo rubber rose back to the 223 yen range, regaining the morning’s gains.

（Tokyo Corn）
On the 18th, Tokyo corn continued to fall on the back of a stronger yen and the Chicago market’s decline after reopening. The May futures contract was down 310 yen at 22,000 yen.
Chicago corn attempted a rebound, but the yen’s rapid appreciation remained dominant, forcing Tokyo to extend its losses during the night session. In daytime trading, while a pause in the yen’s strength prevented further declines, the market still moved lower, hovering around 22,200 yen in early trading. However, on the back of Chicago corn’s renewed decline, the front-month contract fell below 22,100 yen by 9:30 a.m., and below 22,000 yen before 10 a.m. After the 22,1980 yen low, selling pressure eased later in the day, and the declines narrowed. The persistent yen risk prevented aggressive buying in Tokyo corn. The gradual yen weakness did not offset the price decline, making the market appear even cheaper. The U.S. Corn Belt’s eastern rainfall forecast remained unchanged.

（Tokyo U.S. Soybeans）
On the 18th, Tokyo soybeans dropped sharply on reopening due to Chicago’s sharp fall and rapid yen appreciation. The May futures contract was down 1,210 yen at 46,670 yen.
Even with the yen strengthening rapidly, Tokyo soybeans remained largely inactive in night trading. In the morning, there was little reaction, but the front-month contract finally declined, dropping below 47,000 yen at 10 o’clock. The decline was driven by Chicago soybeans’ more than 10-cent drop after reopening. Tokyo followed Chicago’s plunge, but in night trading, traders watched the yen’s trajectory, awaiting any further selling at the peak price.
https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=15231