[Fuji Tomi] Tokyo Rubber continues to rally from near-term to mid-term

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products on the 16th continued to rise but the gains narrowed. The front-month October crude futures rose 200 yen from the previous day to 36,390 yen, the front-month November gasoline futures rose 120 yen to 49,080 yen, and the front-month November kerosene futures rose 190 yen to 92,440 yen.
Following the agreement on extending production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia, overseas crude surged even in after-hours trading, contributing to a further rise in the Tokyo oil market. However, concerns over a faster pace of U.S. crude production increases caused overseas crude to retreat from its highs, and the Tokyo oil market narrowed its gains and ended after-hours trading. In daytime trading, buying re-emerged due to bullish inventory data expectations and a bullish Tokyo stock market mood. Crude futures briefly rebounded to the 36,500 yen level, but as the Nikkei stock average sharply fell around 11:00, the yen also strengthened, pushing prices back to the 36,300 yen level. With the recovery in the Nikkei, the yen depreciation paused and crude oil saw some buying again. After 13:00, U.S. gasoline in New York weakened into negative territory, indicating softening in overseas markets, and the Tokyo oil market narrowed its gains. Although the Nikkei recovered and buying resumed, market interest abroad remained, and with inventory statistics expectations fueling a somewhat forceful chase, the buying did not continue.

（Tokyo precious metals）
Tokyo gold on the 16th rose further, supported by a bullish tone in New York gold. Front-month April gold futures rose 7 yen to 4,486 yen, and front-month April platinum futures rose 23 yen to 3,413 yen.
The bullish tone in New York gold is favorable for Tokyo gold, which continued to rise. New York gold showed an even stronger upward move, supported by President Trump’s information leakage issue regarding Russia, maintaining a bullish tone around the 1,230-dollar level. Even in the 11 o’clock range when the yen appreciated, the rise in New York gold supported Tokyo gold at high price levels. With the bullish tone in New York gold affecting New York platinum as well, there were still reasons to avoid selling at the 3,400 yen level in Tokyo platinum. Both Tokyo gold and Tokyo platinum are expected to maintain a bullish tone until Trump’s visit to Israel on the 22nd. The 4,500 yen level for Tokyo gold is seen as a milestone; considering the days ahead into next week, there is considerable upside potential. This implies that event risks will rise from the weekend to early next week.

（Tokyo Rubber）
Tokyo rubber on the 16th continued to rise, mainly in the near-month. The front-month October futures rose 8.6 yen to 228.0 yen.
Tokyo rubber showed a strong continuation in the near-month, pushing the front-month higher and lifting the near-month due to the unexpectedly strong near-month. The mid-month futures also surged by more than 10 yen, prompting the front-month to rise to 227.9 yen at one point around 12:30. Although there was talk that there was a shortage only for the current month, as concerns about shortages extended to the mid-month months, buying of the cheaper near-month would be inevitable. The current month might stall just before 300 yen, but attention should be paid to the mid-month futures as well. At 14:30, the front-month reached 228.0 yen. It softened to the 226 yen range, but given the strong rise from near-month to mid-month, the downside was limited.

（Tokyo Corn）
Tokyo corn on the 16th fell on the Chicago prices. Front-month May futures were down 200 yen to 22,430 yen.
Following weakness in Chicago at the start of the week, maize fell more sharply than expected in Chicago, but thanks to a weaker yen, Tokyo's after-hours trading held its declines. In daytime trading, early on there was some resilience and buying returned to the positive territory briefly. However, as Chicago continued to fall and the yen’s weakness faded, prices fell below 22,500 yen around 10:00. The continued softness in Chicago, alongside progress in U.S. planting and the pace being faster than normal, pushed the market lower. Before noon there was a mass selling, bringing prices below 22,400 yen. Although Chicago remains weak, Tokyo recovered to the 22,400 yen level. In the near term, the pace of maize planting in the crucial Corn Belt might be a negative factor to reflect, so attention should be paid to this.

（Tokyo U.S. Soybeans）
Tokyo general soybeans on the 16th were volatile. Front-month April futures were down 260 yen to 44,7610 yen.
In the morning there was a sharp rally pushing above 48,000 yen, followed by a high of 44,800 yen. However, around 10:00 a.m. the high price警戒 (watch for high price) led to a large drop, erasing most gains, with prices sliding nearly 800 yen from the high. It can be seen as a reaction selling after the Chicago declines, but this product also offered a surge on the downside again.
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