【Fujitomi】In Tokyo gold, selling and buying交错 (intertwined), small advance continues

(Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products)
On the 12th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products showed a delicate balance between yen’s appreciation and a slight continuation of overseas crude oil gains. The October contract for crude oil futures rose 70 yen to 35,930 yen; the November contract for gasoline futures fell 50 yen to 48,780 yen; and the November contract for kerosene futures rose 100 yen to 48,840 yen.
The Tokyo oil market exhibited mixed buying and selling, with trading ranges narrowing further in Tokyo’s day session. While the firm underlying movement of overseas crude oil is supportive, the stronger yen acts as a restraint, resulting in a cautious overall tone despite mixed signals. With Baker Hughes’ weekly rig count due to be released at the weekend, aggressive buying was restrained, but there appeared to be psychological support from expectations for a further rise in NY gasoline that would influence overseas crude oil markets. Fresh positions were expected to be modest at the start of next week, with close attention paid to U.S. crude oil production increases and gasoline demand trends.

(Tokyo precious metals)
On the 12th, Tokyo gold moved modestly higher amid a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with a slight gain. The April contract for gold futures rose 4 yen to 4,474 yen, and the April contract for platinum futures rose 21 yen to 3,390 yen.
Tokyo gold’s intraday trading was forced into an even narrower range. While the yen’s appreciation advanced, the firm tone in NY gold acted as a mixed signal, leaving Tokyo gold with little movement. Political events are expected to bring volatility next week, but the possible clash between a stronger yen and the firmer NY gold could occur. Nevertheless, the prospect of a dollar-based rebound supports expectations that Tokyo gold will recover, and platinum may also see a further autonomous rebound, so platinum selling should be postponed for now.

(Tokyo rubber)
On the 12th, Tokyo rubber futures continued to rise for the near term, but the front-month contract weakened. The October contract for near-month futures rose 0.7 yen to 214.5 yen.
The nearby month remains in a strong trend, but the front month slid into negative territory after midday, showing contrasting price movements. The current month showed 279.2 yen, indicating a temporary peak, and the nearby month’s selling pressure caused it to fall into negative territory. Tensions over container shortages and delivery shortages have been a concern, driving the current month higher, but this risk was expected to ease from June onward, leading to increased selling of the near term. Shanghai rubber’s retreating from its yearly lows also contributed to risk aversion, expanding the near-month’s spread selling. Going forward, selling on rallies in the near month is expected.

(Tokyo corn)
On the 12th, Tokyo corn fell on Chicago’s decline and a stronger yen, with a noticeable reluctance to fall further. The May contract for near-month futures was 90 yen lower at 22,640 yen.
Chicago’s decline reflects farmers selling based on progress in planting, compounded by the stronger yen, causing Tokyo to slip. However, the decline was not severe, aided by bargain buying, and it even staged a modest rebound to 22,650 yen. From the morning’s low, this is nearly a 100 yen rebound, which otherwise might have tested 22,500 yen. From the weekend into early next week, the U.S. corn belt is expected to have ideal weather for planting, accelerating progress and encouraging farmer selling. This abnormal reluctance to fall suggests that Tokyo could see a sharp fall at the start of next week.

(Tokyo soybeans)
On the 12th, Tokyo’s general soybeans were extremely quiet. The April contract for nearest-month futures rose 100 yen to 47,800 yen.
With Chicago continuing to fall and the yen strong, downside pressure was expected, but the declines were muted and trading remained subdued as usual. Chicago is unlikely to avoid further declines, and general soybeans at the start of next week are anticipated to continue with a downside-detecting pattern. The stance of selling into price spikes is expected to continue.
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