Coin toss trade, started again [木里ゆう]

■Asapon

A short position held since August 3 was stopped out on August 11…

Monday, August 10

Since I held the position, there were no trades.

Tuesday, August 11

Since I held the position, there were no trades.

Wednesday, August 12

Since I held the position, there were no trades.

Thursday, August 13

Sell → ×

Friday, August 14

Sell → Carried over to the following week

Last week 2 losses, total 28 wins, 30 losses, +720 pips.

Currently on an 8-loss streak and clearly out of sorts, but moving forward.

Moreover, the current GBP/JPY volatility isn’t aligning with Asapon. I’m considering a feature where the OCO values adapt to volatility increases/decreases.

■Dollar-Yen Ledger

Although on a 12-loss streak, the streak finally ended on August 14!

Total 32 wins, 112 losses, +480 pips.

I'm relieved to have won this time (laughs).

■Turkish Lira/Yen Account

Last week there was a big move in Turkish Lira/Yen. On August 10, I sold 1 lot of Turkish Lira/Yen with GMO Click Securities.

Thus, currently in people’s FX accounts I hold 1.7 lots long Turkish Lira/Yen, and 1 lot short with GMO Click Securities.

The reason for shorting was that the Turkish Lira/Yen chart looked likely to fall further.

If it falls, the short position gains, acting as a hedge for the long account. Even if it rises from here, since I hold more long positions than short, this is actually a favorable development.

Additionally, the swap difference between buy and sell (about 20 yen per day) accumulates daily.

In the future, in the short account I will short Turkish Lira/Yen when it looks likely to drop, and take profits near a bottoming point.

If it unexpectedly rises, that’s lucky, and I’ll continue to collect daily swaps while waiting for another drop.

By having one short position open,

• I can also target profits in the short account
• Hedge the risk of the long account
• Total positive swap from both sides

with many advantages.

■ Coin Toss Trade

As I reported on Twitter, I will resume coin-toss trading. Previously I completed 200 trades in GBP/JPY, but this time I’ll challenge EUR/JPY.

Starting from August 17.

If the coin toss app shows red, I buy; if it shows green, I sell.

(Adjusted to have 50% probability for each outcome)

Profit-taking at 55 pips, stop-loss at 40 pips, fixed with OCO. Entry time is during my part-time job break, roughly 15:00–17:00.

In such times, the volatility checker is handy.

The average volatility of EUR/JPY is about 90 pips per day. So I’ll target about half of that.

I’ll also post results on Twitter, so I’m looking forward to it.

Next week in this column, I’ll write why I’m taking on this coin-toss challenge.

■ Bonus

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Kiri Yuu (Kizato Yuu) Profile

A part-time investor with about 10 years of FX experience, and an EA developer. Through trial and error across various trading styles, I arrived at a simple method using only a smartphone. Since 2020 I have been working on turning discretionary methods into EAs, winning the first EA-1 Grand Prix (hosted by FOREX EXCHANGE) with my own EA “Asapon.”

Official site：Kiri Yuu’s Swap FX Life
Twitter：https://twitter.com/KizatoFX
Contributing media：Knockout Options Institute

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