【Fuji Tomi】 Tokyo oil market, rubber market, and corn market all rise sharply together

（Tokyo Crude Oil & Petroleum Products）
On the 11th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products rose sharply, supported by a weaker yen and a rapid rise in overseas crude oil. The October futures for crude oil were up 1,020 yen from the previous day to 353,860 yen, the November futures for gasoline were up 1,040 yen to 488,830 yen, and the November futures for kerosene were up 1,070 yen to 487,440 yen.
With overseas crude oil rising rapidly and the yen weakening rapidly, the Tokyo oil market rose sharply from the night session, temporarily gaining more than 1,000 yen. However, as overseas crude oil settled and erased gains, the upside narrowed. In the daytime trading, driven by the weaker yen, buying resumed and crude oil surged again by more than 1,000 yen, but since it returned to levels that did not reflect overseas crude oil’s high, the crude oil futures did not recover to the 36,000 yen range. Also, due to the stronger yen, it softened to 35,760 yen before noon, but overseas crude oil continued to rise, and by noon the level recovered to the 35,900 yen range. The rise in NY gasoline seemed to trigger a linked buying in WTI and Brent. Going forward, the Tokyo market remains susceptible to the movements of NY gasoline.

（Tokyo Precious Metals）
On the 11th, Tokyo gold rose solidly on the back of a weak yen. The April futures for gold were up 44 yen from the previous day, and the April futures for platinum were up 33 yen.
In Tokyo, both the night and daytime trading moved in a narrow range, and activity was extremely subdued. NY gold fell, while the weaker yen offset this, supporting a firm Tokyo gold market. Tokyo platinum was well bid on the rebound in NY platinum and the weaker yen, climbing back to the 3,350 yen area in the night session. As close approached, both gold and platinum rose on a dollar-based basis, closing roughly near their highs.

（Tokyo Rubber）
On the 11th, Tokyo rubber’s near-month contract surged as the front-month contract faced light supply. The front-month October was up 4.7 yen to 213.8 yen.
It retraced a bit during the night, but in the daytime session, amid an expected fall in Shanghai Rubber in post-hours, selling was expected. Yet, supported by a rapid yen depreciation, buying continued and the night session’s high was easily surpassed. The rise in the near-month was prominent, but the front-month’s gains were tempered by hedge selling, and it looked to test 210 yen. The near-month surged sharply; though the exact catalyst for the near-month surge was unclear, it acted as a factor preventing a drop in the front. While the front-month faced hedge selling and paused, the near-month’s rapid rise also curbed near-term selling. For the current month, arrangement of import containers was tight, contributing to the current-month’s sharp rise and widening the spread, leading to regained buying in the front. Since there were no issues with shipments from June onward, the hedge selling into the front remained persistent. As the day closed, the front-month also rose, closing near the high. The night session’s further rise is implied.

（Tokyo Corn）
On the 11th, Tokyo corn rose sharply in the night session on the back of a weaker yen and a sharp rise in Chicago. The May futures for the front were up 350 yen to 22,730 yen.
After the USDA supply-demand report, Chicago corn rallied, and Tokyo corn surged. Initially, Tokyo did not react much to Chicago’s surge, but supported by the weaker yen and the surge in the oil market, it finally moved higher to the 21,600 yen range. When Chicago’s gains narrowed, it softened to the mid-22,500 yen range, but as Chicago again advanced, Tokyo recovered to the 22,600 yen range. In the morning, the market rose to around 22,700 yen due to yen weakness. However, with Chicago resuming its decline and weak weather forecasts in the U.S. Corn Belt, buying receded, and the level fell back to the 22,600 yen range. By noon, it held up somewhat but was pressured by the near-month’s rapid rise, and the level regained to 22,700 yen. Considering the weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt, there is still inclination to sell into strength, but one should watch for Chicago’s technical buying and the yen’s depreciation.

（Tokyo U.S. Soybeans）
On the 11th, Tokyo generic soybeans were modestly firm. The April futures for the front were up 50 yen to 47,700 yen.
Before the USDA supply-demand report, Tokyo futures weakened and there was no real reaction to the actual announcement. It faced a correction after the stronger-than-expected buying earlier in the morning. By close, a modest buying resumed, but there was no momentum to test 48,000 yen.
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