【Fujitomi】Overseas oil market and Chicago corn surge sharply

(NY Precious Metals)
On the 10th, New York gold rebounded but still faced a heavy upside with a move below $1,220. NY near-month June gold futures settled higher by a dollar, while NY near-month July platinum futures rose $9.0 to $909.90.
As the prior session closed, NY gold recovered to the $1,220 range aided by a drop in the Dow and a weaker dollar, and in the resumed Asian trading session it staged a more than $10 rebound from its low. The move to hold the $1,220 level in the Asian session helped push the high to about $1,225.8 in European trading. However, due to renewed concerns about a stronger dollar, prices were dragged down, and in US trading they broke below $1,220 again. The market again recognized the heavy upside. There is also caution that 1,200 may come under pressure on expectations of a US rate hike. Platinum and palladium showed autonomous rebounds.

(WTI crude oil, NY oil products, North Sea Brent)
On the 10th, WTI crude oil rebounded sharply on positive U.S. EIA inventory data. WTI near-month June futures rose $1.45 to $47.33; North Sea Brent near-month July futures rose $1.49 to $50.22. RBOB gasoline June futures up 5.01 cents to 153.96 cents, NY heating oil near-month June futures up 3.33 cents to 147.54 cents.
In the much-watched U.S. EIA inventory report, crude stocks fell by 5.247 million barrels from the previous week. However, as the API reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels beforehand, the result was largely anticipated. Gasoline stocks fell by 150,000 barrels, contrasting with the API's 3.2 million barrels increase. With gasoline demand improving for the fifth week, expectations of gasoline demand recovery aided the broader revision of crude stock draws, allowing WTI near-month June to recover into the $47 range. Breaking above last week's high around $46.98 opened up a fresh stop-loss driven rally, sharpening the sense of a chart bottom. Although gasoline demand improved, crude oil production continued to rise, keeping the US production uptrend intact, and many see $48 as still difficult. NY gasoline has led today’s gains, so eyes will remain on NY gasoline price movements going forward.

(CBOT Soybeans)
On the 10th, CBOT soybeans rose sharply at first but then fell back, with near-month losing ground. July futures near-month fell 3.75 cents to 970.25 cents, new crop November futures fell 0.75 cents to 966.75 cents.
In the USDA WASDE report, US ending stocks for 2016/17 were 435 million bushels and 2017/18 were 480 million bushels, both below the average market projections. World ending stocks for 2016/17 were 90.14 million tons and 2017/18 were 88.81 million tons, both well above the average expectations. Prices had surged on anticipation before the report, but with lingering global oversupply concerns, prices fell sharply from highs. The rebound from the highs appears to be a correction, and was a move down from highs.

(CBOT Corn)
On the 10th, CBOT corn rose sharply following the USDA WASDE report. July near-month futures rose 6.50 cents to 373.00 cents, new crop December futures rose 5.50 cents to 390.50 cents.
In the USDA WASDE report, US ending stocks for 2016 were 229.5 million bushels, below last month’s 230.8 million and below the average analyst estimate of 232.6 million. The 2017 ending stocks were 211.1 million bushels, also below the average estimate of 212.0 million. World ending stocks for 2016 were 22.39 million tons, above the average forecast of 22.332 million, but for 2017 were 19.527 million tons, below the forecast of 20.972 million, and under 20 million tons, which was noted as a positive signal. Overall, the report was viewed as strong and supported further upside in Chicago corn. After the initial gains, expectations of persistent global oversupply cooled the rally somewhat, yet July near-month corn held above $3.70, with technical buying pushing higher. Nevertheless, soybean weakness also appeared, and favorable planting weather in the US Corn Belt limited further upside. As a result, July corn again slipped below $3.70, but then recovered on the back of WTI’s sharp rise, returning July corn to around $3.70. Considering upcoming weather in the US Corn Belt, the market may be a bit stretched for buyers.
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