Virtual Currency Market Analysis [August 4 Issue]

Bitcoin jumped rapidly from last week's price of 1,070,000 yen.

From that price, it rose sharply.

It temporarily surpassed 1,200,000 yen.

Currently it is around 1,180,000 yen.

Bitcoin daily chart

As previously conveyed in this newsletter

the coin's price has been narrowing its range since mid-June

more and more.

In such a situation

when energy is accumulating,

it is judged that the price could move significantly

up or down.

In reality, it broke higher dramatically

and, from a single line around 1,100,000 yen,

it rebounded from the 1,100,000 yen level

and moved toward 1,200,000 yen.

From this daily chart,

the price is trading within a wide range

between 1,250,000 and 1,300,000 yen.

Current selling pressure is strong in that range,

and although the price tries to go higher,

it is pushed back by selling pressure.

This is the current situation.

With this rally, the low in mid-March during the Corona shock

of 500,000 yen

was surpassed, rising by 160%.

To see such a surge in about six months is

hard to imagine for anyone, right?

With this big rally, today in the news

the market capitalization reportedly

overtook Intel and Coca-Cola.

Bitcoin is currently

gearing toward the year-end high of 1,500,000 yen

in the short term,

one could say.

Next, let's look at Bitcoin's

weekly chart.

On the weekly chart, two lines have been drawn.

One around 1,150,000 yen

The second around 1,250,000 yen

The current price is between these lines.

＊On the weekly chart, one candlestick represents

one week's price movement

Looking at last year's high,

it seems that around 1,250,000 yen

is being watched closely, with strong selling pressure

expected around that level.

Also, last year's

late June high

should be examined.

That region has a wide price range with each interval,

but actual selling pressure is strong and a large upper wick has formed.

In other words, if it rises to 1,500,000 yen,

it suggests that large investors who planned to sell at that level

would be involved.

Therefore, multiple attempts to reach 1,500,000 yen

have been met with rejection.

Last year's 1,500,000 yen

price surge began from 350,000 yen in March 2019,

which is also surprising.

This recent Bitcoin rally is intriguing in terms of how high it may go, but

last year there were two global news events

- US-China trade tensions

- Hong Kong protests

that caused economic anxiety.

However, this time

the impact is tied to what some call an economic crisis,

the coronavirus.

Compared to last year, the fundamental value of Bitcoin seems to be rising.

In other words, the fundamentals are strong.

Keep an eye on future price movements.

[Rising Ripple in cryptocurrencies]

Actually, in last week's newsletter I wrote

that Ripple had not risen much

based on past market movements, there was a possibility it would rise later

and it indeed followed that pattern.

Ripple daily chart

Ripple's real surge began around

around July 27.

Bitcoin started rising around July 21,

about a week’s lag.

As in previous years, the cryptocurrency market rose significantly toward the peak at the end of June,

but Ripple rose a little later.

Thus, this time too, while Ethereum and Bitcoin rose sharply, Ripple remained relatively quiet for a while,

and there is a possibility that funds may flow into Ripple later.

Recently for Ripple:

- Swift international conference

- Release of an online settlement system

were in the news.

And experts' year-end Ripple price forecast is around 60 yen.

Ripple itself has not had much standout news until now,

but among investors there is a sense that the demand for a real bank transfer system and Ripple's system

is real and necessary, leading to a dilemma.

That is because Ripple's price has been comparatively low compared to other currencies.

With this big surge, Ripple holders seem to feel more secure,

but in reality,

the potential for Ripple to increase its share in bank transfers

and other fundamental factors suggest a longer-term rise is possible.

Recently, currencies with fast processing speeds are being released,

and the question of whether Ripple is really necessary is increasingly debated among people.

Nevertheless, Ripple focuses on bank transfers,

and aims to differentiate itself from other currencies in that area.

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