[Fujitomi] Chicago grains fall across the board
(New York Precious Metals)
On the 8th, amid a tug-of-war between selling and buying, New York gold stayed flat. The nearby June 2024 NYMEX gold futures settled at $1,227.1 per ounce, up $0.2 from the previous weekend, and the nearby July NYMEX platinum futures settled at $919.6 per ounce, up $9.4.
When news of Macron’s victory in the French presidential election spread, risk sentiment receded and prices fell to $1,221.0. However, there were moves to hold around the $1,220 level, and a quick rebound to the $1,230 range occurred. Still, wary of expectations for US rate hikes and the large rise in the Nikkei on Monday, it could not sustain the $1,230 level. Once European trading began and the stock market’s rebound cooled, technical buying pushed it up to $1,236.9, surpassing the previous week’s high, but the gain was temporary. Afterwards, it quickly fell back below $1,230. With concerns about a drop to $1,200, purchasing at the $1,230 level did not persist easily. NY platinum continued to show autonomous rebound moves.
(WTI Crude Oil, NY Petroleum Products, North Sea Brent)
On the 8th, WTI crude oil remained in a choppy, small-rise pattern. The nearby June WTI futures settled at $46.43, up $0.21 from the previous day; nearby July North Sea Brent futures settled at $49.34, up $0.24. RB0B gasoline June futures rose 0.0132 cents to 151.78 cents per gallon, and NY heating oil near-month June futures rose 0.0190 cents to 145.56 cents.
At the end of last week, WTI near-month June futures rebounded from a low of $43.76 to near $46, and early in the week the rebound intensified further. The long lower shadow formed on the chart suggests technical buying was at work. However, with US crude output continuing to rise, the rally stalled at $46.98, and the market avoided breaking above $47, turning down. After falling to $45.83, there were again technical buy orders lifting it to $46.81. The rebound in NY petroleum products provided support. Yet, given continued bearish fundamentals, selling intensified again, reaching a low of $45.73 during US trading hours. Thereafter, a fresh bout of technical buying pushed back into the $46 range, but with limited upside. Although discussions of OPEC+ prolonging production cuts were in play, US output increases offset the effects, leading to subdued expectations for any extension and dampening technical buying.
(CBOT Soybeans)
On the 8th, CBOT soybeans fell sharply, weighed down by weaker meal and corn performance. The nearby July futures were down 9.00 cents at 964.00 cents, and the new-crop November futures were down 6.25 cents at 960.25 cents.
In April, China’s trade surplus included soybeans imports totaling 8.02 million tons, up 13.4% month-over-month, but primarily from South America, which did not provide supportive evidence for Chicago soybeans. Meanwhile, favorable weather in the US Corn Belt raised expectations for soybean planting progress during the peak of planting season. Ahead of the weekly export inspections reported by the USDA, there was caution about aggressive buying, leading to a broader sell-off. The market awaited the national average soybean planting progress rate, with the consensus estimate at 16% before the Chicago close.
(CBOT Corn)
On the 8th, CBOT corn fell due to a sharp drop in wheat. Nearby July futures were down 4.25 cents at 366.50 cents, and the new-crop December futures were down 4.00 cents at 384.50 cents.
Early in the week, with expectations for improved winter wheat conditions, wheat faced a soft tone. In Kansas, the largest winter wheat producing region, a crop tour conducted last week showed high yields and little frost damage, which raised concerns about potentially weak crop conditions. For corn, expectations of improved planting progress in the western Corn Belt were also in play. The consensus forecast for the national average corn planting progress rate was 44% (versus 34% last week) at Chicago close, indicating a cautious outlook for planting progress.
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