The indicator is not an end in itself; what do you look at when you use it?

This time there is no introduction to indicators.

Using indicators, what should we look at?

That’s the discussion.

Ultimately, price movement is unknowable in which direction it will go.

It might be more rational to think it’s random.

But when you watch it, there are moments when it seems to move in one direction.

For example

candlesticks that are rising make up about 70% of the total

candlesticks that are falling make up about 30% of the total

then within the 70% that are rising, if you enter long

and trade well, you can trade with enough statistical advantage

If you enter long among the 70% of rising candlesticks

you can make a profit.

It's a very simple notion, but

it feels very reasonable.

In FX, the profits come from "trend following"

and that’s likely where this idea is found.

Enter in the direction of the 70% trend

it sounds plausible, and I actually think it’s plausible.

So, I derive the direction with indicators that have a higher probability of extending,

and I enter in that direction

which is the main axis of my method.

But of course

there comes a time when 70% finishes

No one knows when a trend will end.

Yet, there are many times when you can sense a hint beforehand.

If a hint appears, I identify it with indicators and

I also include that as a side axis of my method.

People who are winning in FX

what trend, what span (time frame) of trend

how they judge it and how they formulate their trade plan?

despite differences,

it might be a rough opinion, but in a broad sense

they are all the same

I think one could say.

Many people are working daily jobs or something,

only a few trade full-time

so when they open a chart, they want to trade as soon as they can

and they tend to think so

It seems that such tendencies are being exploited

with methods and products that claim you can win even in ranging markets

not 70% in one or the other

if there are methods that win in range markets, then...

I’d like to see them.

At least not anything I’ve seen so far.

Even if it sounds plausible and looks like you can win

in reality it’s extremely difficult.

In ranges, neither side has a high percentage.

What constitutes an edge?

I have never seen a logic that can establish that.

The closest I’ve seen is a trading method using Bollinger Bands 3σ

That’s also difficult, though.