Master the market of Kōya Hiroshi and enjoy trading｜Episode 7 [Kōya Hiroshi]
Hiroya Kurome Profile
After joining Nihon Kanyo Kakugaku Securities (now Mizuho Securities) in 1971, he worked as an analyst in the Research Department. After a stint in the United States, he consistently analyzed information and markets of Japanese stocks. In 1996 he transferred to an asset management company (now Asset Management One), serving as Head of Research and Head of the Investment Department, and then as Executive Managing Director and Head of the Trust Fund Operations Division. He retired in 2012. Since then, he has been active on TV and radio. He has nearly half a century of experience in market analysis focused on Japanese stocks.
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*This article is a reprint/edit of an article from FX攻略.com September 2020 issue. The market information in the text is not the same as the current market, please note.
*Data as of the end of June 2020
Looking Back at the Stock Market in the First Half of 2020
By the time this issue is published, the first half of this year has ended and the second half has begun. In this issue, we will look back at the first half, focusing on what happened in the first half and what might be参考 for future developments.
The first half of this year continued the trend from the previous year, peaking on January 20 (24,083 yen) and showing abnormally high volatility from late February onward, with the stock prices fluctuating wildly. The decline to the March 19 low (16,552 yen) was 7,531 yen, and the rise to the June 8 recovery high (23,178 yen) was 6,626 yen—both ranges that scarcely occur once in ten years.
Like natural conditions (temperature, rainfall), the stock market as a whole tends to balance out and normalize; after extreme values, prices often settle into quieter movements. This may signal the outlook for the latter half of the year.
To begin the review of the first half, I want to start with how to identify market tops and bottoms. As noted above, the first half of this year showed extreme, volatile moves, so it is natural to expect that clear phenomena or indicators appeared at tops and bottoms.
Important checkpoints for identifying stock price tops and bottoms that are comparable to the annual highs and lows are as follows. If you monitor these points daily, you should be able to pinpoint tops and bottoms with almost pinpoint accuracy, with at most a few days of margin of error.
