Kawasaki Doruemon-ryu Time Statistics Theory | 8th Issue Monthly Forecast August Edition [Kawasaki Doruemon]
Kawasaki Doruemon regards the temporal element as important in FX. This project will teach Dolemon, from a statistical approach, concrete trading strategies.
Note: This article is a reprint and remodification of an article from FX攻略.com September 2020 issue. Please note that the market information described in the main text may differ from the current market.
Kawasaki Doruemon's Profile
Kawasaki Doruemon. Feeling limited by discretionary trading, he sought a system trading method that minimizes mental burden and allows for easy profits. After various simulations, he completed the Guruguru Train.
Blog：Kawasaki Doruemon's FX Blog
Twitter：https://twitter.com/kawasakidoruemo
August is the Yen-strong Yen Anomaly
Hello, this is Kawasaki Doruemon. This time, I will explain the trend of the foreign exchange market in August.
First, look at Table ①. This shows for the past 20 years of monthly bars whether they were bullish or bearish. As you can see, there are more bearish candles for cross yen pairs. In particular, the number of bearish candles for EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY is 16, while for USD/JPY and GBP/JPY it is 15, which is quite biased. Out of all 20 months, 16 bearish months translates to an 80% probability, and 15 months to 75%. I am taking statistics of monthly bars for all 24 currency pairs, and a probability over 80% is a strong signal that appears only about six times. Two of these are concentrated in August’s cross-yen pairs, making it a very unusual month.
