The Market Tide of “Demand and Supply Demon” Tetsuo Inoue — Professional Market Analysis Know-How and Featured Stocks Revealed! | Episode 6
Tetsuo Inoue Profile
Inoue, Tetsuo. Representative of Spring Capital, certified member of the Japan Society of Financial Analysts. After graduating from Sophia University, he became the Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Japanese Equity Operations at UAM Japan Inc. (part of the Old Mutual Group today) after serving as head of operations at a domestic insurance company. Subsequently, he held the same position at Proud Investment Advisor and at MCP Group, one of Asia’s largest fund of funds providers, before going independent. Known as the “demand and supply demon,” he has also served as a presenter on Nikkei CNBC TV programs “Evening Express” and “IR Strategy Market Breakthrough,” and on Radio NIKKEI’s “Azai.”
From original technical analysis and demand-supply trends, Mr. Inoue analyzes the direction of the stock market (stock indices) from his unique perspective. His newsletter, “Trends in the Market,” and the video school “Winner’s Screening – Stock Hybrid Battle –,” where Mr. Inoue and Mr. Shin-taro Sakamoto (B Comm) provide market commentary and stock picks, are well received on GogoJungle.
Newsletter:Market Trends
Video School:Winner’s Screening – Stock Hybrid Battle –
*This article is a republication/edit of an article from FX攻略.com, September 2020 issue. Please note that the market information described herein may differ from current market conditions.
The Cliff of 2025
While corporate earnings in fiscal year 2020 were expected to fall across many industries due to the COVID-19 pandemic, under such circumstances funds began to significantly shift investments toward companies that could build a subscription-based model within the “Information & Communications” and “Services” sectors as an avoidance-based strategy.
In the previous year, information & communications, especially business software-related companies, faced several adverse factors that arose suddenly: the consumption tax rate increase, the end of support for Windows 7, and the sudden need to support telework for enterprises. As a result, customers planning to purchase business software redirected those funds to software related to consumption tax, PC replacements, and telework-support systems.
Currently, “AI,” “IoT,” “RPA,” and “Big Data” are keywords with pleasant-sounding implications, but at the same time, the industry recognizes a major issue—the so-called “Cliff of 2025” coined by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). In a DX study, METI published a mid-term summary in September 2018 noting that, as of 2015, more than 20% of core business systems had been in operation for over 21 years, with the share projected to reach about 60% by 2025. Meanwhile, PSTN fixed-line networks would end in 2024, and SAP ERP support would end in 2025.
If companies do not migrate their legacy systems to new DX structures and fail to achieve a successful DX, METI warns that Japan’s annual GDP could fall by as much as over 2%, potentially reaching 12 trillion yen in lost economic value.
After the Lehman shock, business software firms temporarily saw declines in earnings, but companies quickly resumed investment in software and IT for their next strategic move. This time, it is certain that the next strategy includes building new DX. Here, we introduce two companies that are strongly focused on supporting DX construction for businesses (contributed June 28, 2020).
