【Fujitomi】Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products plummet at night, but then rebound strongly

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
On the 28th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products fell sharply during the night but then rebounded significantly. Crude oil futures for September were up 40 yen at 35,880 yen, gasoline futures for November were down 140 yen at 48,580 yen, and kerosene futures for November were up 80 yen at 48,300 yen.
The Tokyo oil market dropped sharply in the night due to concerns about a sharp decline in overseas oil markets, approaching 35,000 yen in crude oil futures, but the rebound from overseas crude oil’s lower price helped narrow the loss. WTI had a rebound after resuming. The autonomous rebound in NY gasoline was strong, and by early afternoon it recovered to the mid-49.40s dollars, a more than 1-dollar bounce from the 48.20-dollar low. Although the yen was relatively strong, crude oil futures had returned to the previous day’s level by early afternoon. With overseas crude oil recovering from lows, Tokyo’s pre-Golden Week purchases were inevitable. Tokyo oil products moved into positive territory a bit earlier, but this was seen as an overreaction to the NY oil product market’s rebound. In anticipation of Golden Week, there was talk of increased gasoline demand and a potential buying interest. Tonight, Reuters will publish OPEC’s oil production for April, but ahead of May OPEC meetings, it wants to gauge producers’ stance. The overseas crude oil rebound at week’s end is likely just an autonomous rebound, and Libya’s increased production could become a future source of pressure. Early next week, as it is the gap between Golden Week holidays, we should be flexible in our approach.

（Tokyo precious metals）
On the 28th, Tokyo gold fell amid thin trading. April futures for gold were down 6 yen at 4,509 yen, and April futures for white platinum were down 2 yen at 3,392 yen.
Tokyo gold is declining for the first time in a while due to a stronger yen and the lowering of NY gold prices. It managed to hold above 4,500 yen, but trading was extremely weak ahead of Golden Week. There is also a tendency for stock prices to drop in May, so we would like to maintain a buying stance for Tokyo gold considering political risks in May. Tokyo platinum continued to fall, with 3,400 yen acting as a resistance level. Regarding platinum, the stance of selling on rallies remains unchanged no matter how high it goes.

（Tokyo Rubber）
On the 28th, Tokyo rubber rose sharply on a rebound. October futures were up 2.3 yen at 217.3 yen.
Although it had risen overnight on the back of the previous day’s close, during the daytime trading it extended further, reaching 220.0 yen by midday. This was influenced by position adjustments ahead of Golden Week. In addition to the steady Shanghai rubber market, the previous day’s 210 yen had raised expectations of near-term lows. At 220.0 yen, there were sales of more than 150 lots, forming a resistance. In the week ahead, as Golden Week approaches and Shanghai market closures are anticipated, Tokyo will be driven by internal factors, but given weak fundamentals, the selling stance remains.

（Tokyo Corn）
On the 28th, Tokyo corn traded thinly, with price activity mixed depending on the lot. May futures were unchanged at 218,40 yen.
It is moving within a box range. Despite a sharp drop in Chicago the previous day, buyers re-entered aggressively, showing a pattern that ignores Chicago’s plunge. This created an unusual behavior. Weekend to Monday, a substantial amount of rain is expected in the US corn belt, while later next week drier weather is anticipated, suggesting a setup for future price movements. Ahead of Golden Week, participants were cautious. Considering drier weather in the latter part of Golden Week, a further drop in Chicago during the Golden Week period could be expected, so selling appears prudent. In Tokyo, because buying was driven quite aggressively earlier, the subsequent decline might be larger from week to week. Please watch the weather forecast for early next week. Even if the crop progress report released early next week is strong, it will likely provide an opportunity to sell.

（Tokyo U.S. soybeans）
On the 28th, Tokyo soybeans were extremely thinly traded. May futures were down 70 yen at 46,520 yen.
Trading was very subdued from morning, moving with the next lot. Although the Golden Week gap is approaching, new positions are expected to be avoided, but after Golden Week, we would like to test selling due to the anticipated decline in Chicago prices.
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