【Fujitomi】The Tokyo oil market as a whole showed a small retreat

（Tokyo crude oil and refined products）
On the 27th, Tokyo crude oil and refined products fell as overseas markets feared further declines. Crude oil futures for September were down 160 yen from the previous day at 35,840 yen, gasoline futures for November were down 190 yen at 48,720 yen, and kerosene futures for November were down 70 yen at 48,220 yen.
In the U.S. EIA inventory statistics, crude oil inventories fell more than expected, supporting WTI above the $50 level and lifting Tokyo crude oil as well. However, following the overseas market declines, Tokyo prices were pushed lower, and in the late session the stronger yen further widened the losses. Beyond the reduction in crude inventories, the EIA report pointed to further increases in crude production, weakening gasoline demand, and a sharp build in petroleum product stocks, with no other supportive factors evident. The Brent drop, linked to NY oil, stood out. In the morning, Tokyo crude reflected a pullback from the stronger yen and the return of overseas crude, showing a recovery from night-session highs. In the daytime trade, price movement was more restricted than usual. While WTI recovered, the stronger yen continued to suppress Tokyo’s rebound. Toward the close, Tokyo crude held back on declines as selling pressure emerged. With the Golden Week holiday approaching, outright liquidation of long positions was expected.

（Tokyo precious metals）
Tokyo gold rose again on the 27th, but the gains narrowed. Gold futures for April were up 4 yen from the previous day at 4,515 yen, and platinum futures for April were down 24 yen at 3,394 yen.
From the ongoing rise in the NY Dow, NY gold had remained soft, but as the NY Dow fell toward the close, NY gold rebounded to the $1,270 range. Meanwhile, the yen weakened, turning into a stronger yen, which weighed on Tokyo gold, but the rise in NY gold supported it, keeping it around the 4,500 yen level. The maintenance of NY gold around the $1,260 level contributed to holding the 4,500 yen area. On the other hand, NY platinum dropped sharply, leading Tokyo platinum to be sold again and fall below 3,400 yen. Platinum has repeatedly seen that a pullback sale is the safer stance. At the outset Tokyo gold widened its gains, reaching new night-session highs and moving into the 4,520 yen range. However, after 10:00 the gains in NY gold narrowed and the stronger yen limited Tokyo’s price level to the 4,520 yen area temporarily. There were concerns that prices could slip into negative territory, but Tokyo managed to stay in positive territory.

（Tokyo rubber）
Tokyo Rubber on the 27th fell sharply. The front-month October contract was down 3.8 yen at 215.0 yen.
From the high at the previous session’s close, the market deteriorated and Tokyo Rubber fell during the night session. In the daytime, the range-bound trading with heavy lifting to the downside intensified, sending prices down to around 210 yen. Subsequently, there was a rapid rebound to 214.9 yen. With Golden Week approaching, short-term trading likely drove the moves, suggesting this trend may continue tomorrow. As the market narrowed toward the close, a rebound in the night session could be anticipated, but the overall trend remained bearish.

（Tokyo corn）
Tokyo corn on the 27th showed a disregard for Chicago’s sharp fall, with the front month slightly higher. May futures were up 40 yen at 218,40 yen.
Chicago erased the previous gains as forecasts of improved weather in the U.S. Midwest in early May discouraged buyers. Tokyo initially did not react, but with forecasts of rain from weekend into Monday, buying interest remained restrained. However, attention shifted to Chicago, and selling pressure increased after Chicago’s close. The yen had steadied, and considering Chicago’s collapse, Tokyo’s price level had likely fallen below the prior morning level. In the morning session, prices started below 216,000 yen but, due to a strength-driven market, moved into positive territory by midday. It seems Tokyo market participants expected rain from the weekend into early next week, but this was clearly a strength-driven high-price setup. Tokyo’s price level appears quite elevated given Chicago’s sharp drop and the yen’s strength. The move toward high prices in blocks of four became noticeable. If weather improves in May, Tokyo could experience a sharper fall than Chicago. After 14:00, prices softened to mid-217,000s, but buying renewed, and declines slowed, suggesting ongoing resistance to downward movement.

（Tokyo U.S. soybeans）
Tokyo standard soybeans on the 27th were extremely quiet. May futures were up 140 yen at 46,560 yen.
Today too, trading was extremely subdued. Chicago soybeans continued to fall sharply, but the corn market remained subdued on Chicago’s weakness, keeping Tokyo standard soybeans quiet with little response. Traders are awaiting post-Golden Week actions, but given the limited downside so far, selling appears to be the safer bet.
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