Kawasaki Dollaremonryu Time Statistics Theory | 6th Monthly Forecast June Edition [Kawasaki Dollaremon]

Kawasaki Doruemon-san emphasizes the temporal aspect in FX. This project will teach such Doruemon-san concrete trading strategies from a statistical approach.

※This article is a reprint/edited version of articles from FX Strategy.com July 2020 issue. Please note that the market information described in the body may differ from current market conditions.

Kawasaki Doruemon Profile

Kawasaki Doruemon. Feeling limits in discretionary trading, he searched for a system trading method that could be profitable with as little mental burden as possible. Through various simulations, he completed the Guruguru Train.

Blog：Kawasaki Doruemon's FX Blog
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Will June’s Forex Market Be a Dollar Sell-off?

This time, we will explain the time-related trends of the June market.

First, please look at Table ①. This is data collected from June monthly charts for each currency pair from 2000 onward. Looking at the USD/Swiss Franc column, there were 5 bullish candles and 15 bearish candles. In terms of probability, the bearish candles account for 75%. From this, June tends to be a weaker dollar or a stronger Swiss franc.

However, that alone does not indicate which trend is stronger, so it is necessary to look at other USD and Swiss Franc related currency pairs as well. So again, look at Table ①. The number of bullish candles for GBP/USD is 13, for AUD/USD is 14, and the bearish candles for USD/CAD are 13, showing a slight tendency toward dollar weakness across most dollar-structured pairs. Therefore, in June there appears to be a slight tendency toward dollar weakness centered on USD/CHF.