【Fujitomi】Corn surges sharply

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products on the 26th rose in response to a sharp yen depreciation, but the gains were pared after weak inventory statistics. Crude oil futures for September were up 470 yen at 30,000 yen, gasoline futures for October were up 430 yen at 49,140 yen, and kerosene futures for October were up 810 yen at 47,410 yen.
With expectations leading the way on inventory data, both WTI and Brent rose, making new highs before the release of the US API. The yen’s decline also supported a sharp rebound in Tokyo crude futures back into the 30,000 yen range. Now, the much-anticipated US API release disappointed: both crude and gasoline stockpiles, where a decrease was expected, actually rose, reflecting weaker demand and a notable surge in gasoline inventories. Following this report, overseas crude, driven by speculative buying, extended its gains but then fell in price. In Tokyo, the further yen weakness provided support, but futures dipped below 30,000 yen. Prices fell to 35,770 yen, but as the declines in WTI and Brent narrowed and the Nikkei Average resumed an afternoon rally, buying led after 1 PM, and the market attempted to test 30,000 yen; the yen weakness and stock strength helped it recover to the 30,000 yen level after 2 PM. By the way, today’s kerosene saw particularly strong gains, as the front-month demand period began, and the spread between gasoline and kerosene futures narrowed, which is believed to have contributed to the rise.

（Tokyo precious metals）
On the 26th, Tokyo gold continued to rise on the back of yen depreciation. Gold futures for February were up 17 yen at 4,511 yen, and platinum futures for February were up 11 yen at 3,418 yen.
Tokyo gold, buoyed by the rapid yen depreciation, traded in the 4,500 yen area during the day. New York gold had fallen due to the surge in the Dow, but in the Tokyo market the yen’s weakness offset that. New York gold continued to fall as stock prices rallied, with the downside potentially testing $1,260 per ounce. However, it is expected that the yen’s strength will cushion further declines in New York gold, so Tokyo gold is seen as holding firm. New York gold remains dependent on the Dow. After 2 PM, as the Nikkei Average surged further, the yen weakened further, pushing Tokyo gold up into the 4,510 yen range.

（Tokyo Rubber）
Tokyo rubber on the 26th was mixed. The front-month October was up 0.5 yen at 218.8 yen.
After-hours losses gave way to a rebound as the yen weakened and the Dow surged, with prices returning to positive territory in the morning. Recently, Tokyo rubber has been more influenced by the yen and stock prices than by Shanghai rubber, with internal factors driving the moves; a rebound from night-time lows was therefore expected. In the late morning, the front month traded around 220.0 yen, but sizable selling did not materialize, so 220 yen remained not decisively achieved. However, selling pressure based on Shanghai rubber declines was noticeable, and Tokyo rubber has become a seller-dominated market targeting momentum; this helped trigger a rally, and after 2:40 PM, the front month finally broke through 220 yen. While the selling is influenced by Shanghai rubber declines, the yen weakness and stock highs deserve greater attention.

（Tokyo Corn）
Tokyo corn on the 26th surged. Front-month May was up 540 yen at 21,800 yen.
From mid-session the yen’s weakness supported buying, and with Chicago’s rapid rise, Tokyo’s gains widened. However, caution about the yen’s weakness remained, making the night session gains modest. In the morning, selling pressure held prices around 21,600 yen, but further yen weakness and Chicago’s rise at 9 AM encouraged more buying, and by 10 AM it jumped to the 21,800 yen range. Since this level early in the session seemed plausible, Tokyo is seen as needing more upside. After stalling at 21,840 yen, the yen’s weakness and Chicago’s smaller gains led corn to pause, trading back under 21,800 yen. With insufficient upside, the upturn was limited, but if rain continues in the U.S. corn belt for a while, Chicago could turn bullish again since the market is still young, keeping buying in place and eyeing 22,000 yen as a target.

（Tokyo U.S. soybeans）
In Tokyo, May soybeans faced selling pressure and did not react to the yen’s depreciation. Front-month April was down 180 yen at 46,420 yen.
Tokyo soybeans were mixed, with Chicago’s price trend and the yen being key factors. Chicago’s rebound has been eroding, causing the front month to turn negative during the day. The current long-range rainfall forecast for the U.S. corn belt provides support for corn but signals potential shift in soybean planting, turning into a bearish factor for soybeans. Therefore, it is understandable that Tokyo soybeans faced selling pressure on the front month as well.
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