Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [May 5th Issue]
Bitcoin rose sharply from the mid-800,000 yen range last week.
It climbed from the early 800,000 yen range.
It rose.
At one point it reached 1,000,000 yen
and recorded that, but now
there has been a correction and it has fallen.
Regarding the coronavirus , as things stand, the end of the outbreak remains uncertain, and countries are accelerating cash handouts.
Bitcoin surged significantly on April 29 from the mid-800,000 yen range.
There wasn’t major news on that day,
but the factor is seen as the halving scheduled for May 12.
Also, the price of Bitcoin has already
recovered to the January levels before the crash
and the impact of the coronavirus on financial assets is increasingly being viewed in line with or even more positively than the stock market.
It is possible to think that Bitcoin is expected as a financial asset.
【Bitcoin halving date is May 12】
In the previous halving in July 2016,
Bitcoin rose significantly before the halving, and then
fell before the halving.
If we refer to this scenario,
the current 1,000,000 yen could be considered a high
before the halving on May 12,
with a possible decline by that date.
(This is only when using the previous case as a reference.)
When Bitcoin rose to 1,000,000 yen, there was a temporary
increase in buying interest, but
it is difficult to grasp the exact timing of buying, so
it is desirable to use a regular buying method.
There is also a method of buying on the same day each month,
or on the 4-hour chart
＊the same image as earlier
shows the price lows.
That is, consider buying regularly based on lines where price has previously fallen and rebounded.
This could be possible.
In that sense, at the current stage,
it can be considered one buying point.
The reason is that since entering May,
the price has repeatedly rebounded in the lower 900,000s.
However, this is only a chance on the 4-hour chart, so the investment amount should be dispersed (lower) than usual.
I think it is better to invest more conservatively.
Regarding Bitcoin halving,
it was 60,000 yen in July 2016, but
it reached a peak of 2.2 million yen by the end of 2017.
From this period, it is projected that October 2021
Bitcoin could surge significantly.
(This is only drawing on the past for reference)
My view on the halving
is that after the halving there will be a minor adjustment downward,
and towards the end of the year it may rise again.
I think so.
Please refer to this for the mechanism of the halving and its price impact.
Please refer to this.
【Have you applied for the stimulus?】
From May, the government has launched the Sustainable Subsidy.
Corporations can receive up to 2 million yen
and sole proprietors up to 1 million yen.
That is what you can receive.
I also submitted my application on May 1.
I filed taxes with e-Tax,e-Tax,
but when applying via e-Tax with a My Number card,
those who applied with a My Number card could apply immediately,
in my case, since I used a password,
the reception stamp for the tax return did not appear, and in the end
I had to go to the tax office to obtain an income certificate.
What a hassle for online procedures…
But I was able to complete the application successfully.
Professor Noguchi, who is well-versed in cryptocurrencies,
a university professor,
is concerned about the government's international issuance due to this stimulus.
It seems.
From his perspective, holding financial assets other than fiat currency
is advisable, as he suggests.
In a piece he contributed to a magazine,
Bitcoin's name appeared,
and he likely views Bitcoin as
one of the assets with significant influence.
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