[Fuji Tomi] Corn rises in response to the weak yen and Chicago gains at the start of the week

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
On the 24th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products fell sharply over the weekend but narrowed their declines rapidly at the start of the week. The front-month crude oil futures for September were down 80 yen from the previous week’s close at 35,890 yen, the front-month gasoline futures for October were down 50 yen at 49,070 yen, and the front-month kerosene futures for October were down 100 yen at 46,980 yen.
Over the weekend, Tokyo’s oil market was forced into a sharp drop due to a plunge in international crude oil prices; the crude futures fell below 35,000 yen. However, at the start of the week the decline narrowed dramatically aided by the rapid yen depreciation. International crude oil prices recovered as the dollar weakened, and Tokyo’s crude futures briefly climbed back to the 35,800 yen range. Although the supply-demand balance around crude remained poor, the impact of the weaker dollar led to a self-rebound in overseas crude at the start of the week. Tokyo crude prices briefly traded in the 35,600 yen range before recovering to around 35,800 yen by midday; it looked like there had not been the overseas crude drop seen over the weekend, though one might consider the rebound somewhat extended. While the weaker yen and higher stock prices are unavoidable factors, those looking to sell may see further upside in night trading as a selling opportunity. OPEC+ voluntary production cuts also remain uncertain, so a return-to-sell stance still seems prudent. Toward the close, Tokyo’s oil market regained as the yen weakened.

（Tokyo precious metals）
Tokyo gold rose, briefly returning to the 4500 yen level on the 24th, while Tokyo silver remained steady. The front-month gold for February was up 6 yen at 4491 yen, and the front-month platinum for February was up 4 yen at 3434 yen.
Amid a clash between a sudden drop in NY gold and a rapid yen depreciation, Tokyo gold maintained a firm tone, recovering to the 4500 yen level in the 10 o’clock hour. The fall in NY gold had been reversing, which supported buying from the lower 4490 yen level. NY gold temporarily fell to 1266.0 dollars, but given that the June contract’s daily chart corresponds to the 200-day moving average and the long lower wick, it is seen as a near-term bottom. Therefore, Tokyo gold is likely to see more pronounced buybacks on dips. Toward the close, NY gold weakness resurfaced, pushing Tokyo gold below 4490 yen and narrowing gains.

（Tokyo Rubber）
Tokyo rubber on the 24th was bought back toward the close and held firm. The front-month August contract rose 1.2 yen to 217.2 yen.
In the morning, yen appreciation and a sharp rise in NY Dow futures caused Tokyo rubber to drop during the night, but broad-based buying pushed it higher. By just after 10 o’clock, the front month rose to 217.8 yen, narrowing the gap to the night high of 218.0 yen. However, due to further Shanghai rubber inventory increases and Shanghai stock market weakness at the start of the week, buying in Tokyo did not sustain and prices fell to about 213 yen. The decline was influenced by Shanghai rubber stockpiles and the weak Shanghai stock market at the start of the week. While there was a jump driven by domestic internal factors the previous Friday, the pressures at the start of the week were mainly from Shanghai. Since it rose on internal factors, there is a possibility of further instability from external factors causing declines. Considering the tight spreads for nearby contracts, there could be room for spread widening in the near term. As a result, toward the close, front-month futures recovered somewhat, with the front-month price rising back into the 217 yen range before 3 p.m., returning to the positive territory. Depending on the spread, 220 yen could be possible.

（Tokyo Corn）
Tokyo corn rose on the 24th, aided by a weaker yen and higher Chicago prices expected at the start of the week. The front-month May contract rose 310 yen from the previous week to 212,440 yen.
With a rapid yen depreciation at the start of the week, Tokyo corn showed a rebound, starting around 21,000 yen in the morning. After Chicago resumed its rebound at 9 o’clock, buying pushed prices to 21,110 yen, but demand was not strong, and prices were whittled back to 20,930 yen, leaving some price resistance. Chicago’s dollar weakness at the start of the week and persistent showers this week provided supportive factors for buying. Considering Chicago’s post-resumption strength, Tokyo’s rise appeared lackluster; with ongoing rainfall, the week’s start could have been a moment for more aggressive buying. After midday, the gains slowed but then expanded; the gains were still modest. The next-day progress in planting and rainfall forecasts in the U.S. corn belt should be considered more important than the day’s trading.

（Tokyo US Soybeans）
Tokyo US soybeans were mixed, depending on the shipment. The front-month April contract was down 200 yen from the previous week to 46620 yen.
Chicago rose further at the start of the week, but this may be the usual upward movement during Asia time. Given the rapid yen depreciation and Chicago’s rebound, a sharp rise was anticipated, but it was still largely sidelined. The front month was sometimes negative as spreads were unwound, and the market saw some selling when connected trades hit.
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