【Fuji Tomi】Tokyo Rubber Plays A Surge

(Tokyo crude oil and oil products)
Tokyo crude oil and oil products on the 21st closed mixed. The front-month crude oil futures for September stood at 35,970 yen, up 90 yen from the previous day; front-month gasoline futures for October fell 70 yen to 49,120 yen; front-month kerosene futures for October rose 60 yen to 47,080 yen.
Tokyo crude oil traded with buy and sell orders overlapping at night, but during daytime dealings it moved in a narrow range. Early on, the weaker yen and a rebound in WTI encouraged a return to the 36,000 yen area, but as the Nikkei stock average did not rise correspondingly and the autonomous rebounds in WTI and Brent were limited, the level retreated toward noon, slipping below 36,000 yen again. After previously making a new low, WTI showed a rebound, but the upside was weak, likely due to expectations of increased U.S. supply. With U.S. crude production anticipated to rise, concerns about the U.S. Baker Hughes rig count to be released tonight also weighed on the market in Tokyo, causing sentiment to retreat. The overall trend remained downward.

(Tokyo precious metals)
Tokyo gold rebounded but with limited gains on the 21st. Front-month gold for February rose 18 yen to 4,485 yen; front-month platinum for February rose 37 yen to 3,430 yen.
A stronger yen decline and higher levels in New York gold and platinum supported Tokyo gold and platinum’s gains. In the daytime, price moves were largely yen-driven, but as the yen’s advance paused and dollar-based gold and platinum softened, gains in Tokyo gold and platinum narrowed. The sharp rise in New York palladium led to a sell-off in New York platinum, and Tokyo platinum’s gains were particularly diminished. Early next week in Tokyo, the results of the French presidential election are expected to be reflected, but gains were expected to be temporary, with the market likely to continue trading within a range.

(Tokyo Rubber)
Tokyo rubber surged on the 21st. The front-month August contract rose 12.9 yen to 216.0 yen.
Night trading opened with a sharp rise in Tokyo rubber. Shanghai rubber briefly rose more than 3%, prompting renewed buying and cover. After the market reopened, Tokyo rubber advanced further on the back of a sharp rise in the U.S. stock market and a weaker yen, briefly hitting 214.5 yen before pausing. However, by 10 a.m., it moved higher again. Shanghai rubber’s gains were limited and essentially unchanged from the after-hours rise. Tokyo’s rebound appeared to be a correction to an overcrowded sell-off, triggering a short squeeze and pushing the price up to a high of 217.5 yen before noon. Although it retraced considerably from the previous day’s low of 198.0 yen, forming a chart with a notably long lower shadow, suggesting room for further upside, the 220 yen level at the start of next week should be watched closely.

(Tokyo US corn)
Tokyo corn on the 21st fell further on the Chicago market’s decline. Front-month May contract fell 150 yen to 20,930 yen.
Chicago extended its decline, widening the losses, but the yen’s weakness helped Tokyo’s night session avoid a larger drop. A break below 21,000 yen for the front month seemed plausible. Chicago continued to fall after reopening, but Tokyo did not react much at dawn, continuing to show hesitancy to sell during the night session. By 11:30, the front month finally fell below 21,000 yen. The price drop can be viewed as a reaction to the hesitant selling, but with Chicago continuing to decline, further downside remained possible. In the afternoon, losses broadened, but considering Chicago’s renewed weakness, the price may still have more room to fall. Just before 1 p.m., the front month fell below 20,900 yen.

(Tokyo US soybeans)
Tokyo soybeans were extremely quiet. Front-month April contracts fell 40 yen to 46,860 yen.
Night trading remained mixed. Although there were some sizable buy orders in the front month, their impact on the market was limited. The Asia session and Chicago movements often diverge, making it harder to trigger positions. Traders may be waiting for after-Golden Week adjustments.
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