Is there a global recession due to the novel coronavirus? [AKira Mori]

Shin Akira's Profile

Economist. Affiliated with a think tank (United States). Specializes in exchange-rate policy, monetary policy, macroeconomic policy, and financial regulation. Interacts with market participants, financial authorities, and policy makers to analyze exchange-rate trends from multiple angles.

Note: This article is a reprint and editorial revision of an article from FX Trading Guide.com June 2020 issue. Please be aware that the market information stated herein differs from the current market conditions.

On March 24, I am writing this manuscript. By the time readers read this magazine, it is possible that the economic and market environment has changed due to further spread of the novel coronavirus (Image ①). Please read this manuscript as the author's personal outlook as of March 24.

On March 13, President Trump declared a national emergency to address the spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States. Economic activity within the U.S. was restricted. The next day, I went out to shop at a supermarket and was surprised to find certain items (water, frozen foods, peanut butter, disinfectant, juice, etc.) were out of stock (Image ②). Logistics had not stopped, so I reasoned that goods would be replenished after a few days and bought only what was necessary before heading home. As expected, a few days later items were restocked and I was able to purchase what I needed. However, I was very surprised by this incident.