New coronavirus from product market view [Ryuji Sato]

Ryuuji Sato Profile

Sato Ryuuji. Born in 1968. After graduating from a US university in 1993, he joined Genex Corporation (later Oval Next Co., Ltd.), a supplier of information on finance and investments, after working at a marketing company. He has been involved in macroeconomic analysis as well as writing analyst reports on currency, commodities, and stock markets, and trading. In 2010, he founded “H-Square Co., Ltd.”, writing analyst reports and planning/publishing titles such as “FOREX NOTE Currency Handbook,” while also serving as a host on investment-related radio programs. He is an individual trader. International Federation of Technical Analysts – Certified Technical Analyst. Main host on Radio Nikkei’s “The Money Doiso at Market Forecast” (Mondays 15:00–).

Official Site：Ryuuji Sato Blog

Impact of the Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus has been spreading rapidly since the beginning of the year. According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare as of February 23, domestic infections are 132 people (113 patients, 16 asymptomatic carriers, 3 confirmed positives). There are cases with unknown infection routes. In China, there are reports that the spread of infection is slowing, but in Japan the spread seems to be ongoing. This time, I would like to look at the disaster and money flow caused by the coronavirus from the perspective of commodity markets.

Gold Is Rising

First, please look at Chart ①. This shows the year-to-date percentage changes (based on close prices) of major commodities, major stock indices, and the US 10-year Treasury from the start of the year to February 21. Compared with the start of the year, the upsurges are in dollar-priced gold (gold), US 10-year Treasuries (yields falling, prices rising), the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Meanwhile, declines are seen in the Nikkei stock average, Chicago soybeans, LME copper, and NY crude oil.