This year is a seven-year cycle for good game years and even 10x stocks?
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“If you dive in and try it,
in reality, neither side is mud,
it’s just life continuing on.
But depending on how you act afterward,
that choice can be the right answer or a messy wrong one.
So I don’t value “choices” per se.
I only value what you do after that.
People might call it reckless,
but that’s how I see it.”
From “New R25”
https://r25.jp/article/591505299726097194
Quoted
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Hello, this is Shimoyama.
If you’re asked, “What are your hobbies?” you’ll answer
games, manga, TV
smoothly and without hesitation.
In my dating profile,
I wrote something like that.
“A dull profile”
you might think, but...
Especially regarding games, I play around the clock,
so I’m a hardcore gamer.
That’s how it is, since I openly say I love games,
I recently received a question like this.
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This year seems to be a “hit year” for games every seven years,
since a game-loving Shimoyama is here,
you’d think he’d know, but
what do you think about buying game-related stocks?
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That person seemed to have read this article from Nikkei.
↓
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“Nintendo and Capcom,
Konami Holdings and
GungHo Online Entertainment,
brands that have driven the game market since the 1980s,
have appeared roughly every seven years.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the next protagonist appears.
If a hit appears,
there could be a “ten-bagger” stock born.”
said Mr. Kinoshita.”
“Game stocks, big upside expected”
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO54296870Q0A110C2EN2000/
Jan 15, 2020, Nikkei
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As the original article notes,
this year the release of PlayStation 5 is also planned,
and it seems highly likely the game industry will heat up.
“According to Noriyuki Kinouchi of Daiwa Securities,
‘there is a seven-year cycle in game stock popularity,’”
but as an anomaly
it heavily suggests 2020 could be the year to shine.
So, would buying Nintendo, Capcom,
Konami Holdings orGungHo stocks be a good idea?
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Waste of time
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“If you get in now, there might be a timing where stocks skyrocket
within this year.”
There may be people who secretly hope to be encouraged by such words,
but...
Unfortunately, we cannot answer that expectation.
Of course, there is also a strong possibility that
game-related stocks could explode, but
on the other hand PlayStation 5 might underperform,
and game-related stocks could
plunge across the board.
“Ultimately, no one knows the future, and guessing about it is a waste of time,”
is my view.
And one thing I can say for sure is
“I will not buy game-related stocks.”
Because the stock price swings are too volatile, carrying high risk.
The possibility that a stock could rise tenfold also implies it could drop to one-tenth.
There is no reason to dabble in such high-risk stocks.
To be direct,
even if you made a lot of money with a high-risk trade,
that trade would still be amateurish at best.
Lack of reproducibility and excesive gambling-like elements
make it not a professional trade.
A professional trade is about
reducing risk andmaintaining high profit margins.
That is professional trading.
When people hear “10x stock,”
many react sensitively.
That word is used everywhere in magazines and online.
It is a word with strong allure.
But such words are usually used by media
to grab your attention.
Please not be swayed by seductive words,
be careful.
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The misconception that “the right decision is everything.”
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Most people focus on which stocks will rise,and place emphasis on that decision.
They say, “The right decision is everything.”
But there are no people who can continuously make the right decisions in this world.
There will inevitably be moments when you make wrong decisions.
What matters is,
“how you respond at that moment.”
On a related note,
this New Year, there was a drama called
“The Reckless Phoenix.”
It is based on the non-fiction book
“Reckless Phoenix”
published in 2008,
about Shuji Tanaka,
who single-handedly bought Out-of-Work eyewear chain Onsde (Owndes) with debts of 1.4 billion yen and revived it,
and the true story behind it,
which has been dramatized this New Year,
bringing renewed attention to it.
Onsde is now a company with over 12 countries and 300 stores,
but it started with 1.4 billion yen in debt,
and was seen as a company that was finished by many.
The story shows how it was revived to this point.
When reading the novel,
there are many suspenseful scenes,
risk after risk after risk.
When the bank cut off funding,
the risk of insolvency appeared again and again.
Even knowing Onsde exists today,
there are moments when you think,
“Onsde is done this time.”
Yet each time, it flickered back to life and
executed bold, risk-taking strategies.
Why was Onsde able to endure and overcome many crises?
Is it about decision-making?
Among readers of the novel, some may feel
“The president Tanaka made high-risk decisions,
and luck happened to favor them,so Onsde survives today.”
Some may feel that way.
But the essence isn’t there, is it.
As introduced at the beginning, Tanaka’s focus was on the actions after the decisions.
It isn’t that all is decided by the decision itself,
but the actions afterward make the decision right,
in that sense.
The essence is the same across corporate management and investment,though the fields differ.
That core is common.
If you think the decision at the moment of entry decides everything,
please rethink it.
Does the entry decision really determine everything?
With that, please continue reading until the end today as well.
Shimoyama Keizo
