【FujiTomI】 WTI and Brent also fell, souring on the US crude oil production uptrend

(NY Precious Metals)
On the 17th, in a market with mixed fortunes, New York gold edged higher for the fourth consecutive trading day. NYMEX near-month June gold was up $3.40 from the previous close at $1,291.90 per ounce, while NYMEX near-month July platinum was up $13.70 at $991.10 per ounce.
At the start of the week, buying led by, gold jumped to $1,297.40. North Korea launched a missile, which prompted risk-off buying. However, since the launch failed, and it did not appear to be an intercontinental ballistic missile, and given that the nuclear test most anticipated by the market did not occur, profit-taking selling expanded afterward, and prices easily slipped below $1,290, moving around the $1,290 level. With the Dow Jones rising sharply, NY gold turned negative after the settlement price, showing an unstable market. NY platinum rose on technical buying, but having stretched near $1,000, there were many voices suggesting it would offer selling opportunities.

(WTI Crude Oil, NY Petroleum Products, North Sea Brent)
On the 17th, WTI crude oil fell back. WTI near-month June contract was down $0.49 at $53.11, Brent near-month June contract was down $0.53 at $55.36. RB0B gasoline May contract was down 1.53 cents at 171.96 cents, NY heating oil near-month May contract was down 1.66 cents at 163.29 cents.
Before the holidays, Baker Hughes reported a 13th consecutive weekly increase in the number of active oil rigs in the United States, but during the holiday period risk was cautious and fundamentals did not react; after the holiday, risk receded and weaker fundamentals were recognized again. U.S. crude production shown in the EIA inventory statistics rose for the seventh straight week, reinforcing concerns about U.S. supply. While U.S. gasoline was rising in anticipation of the driving season, actual gasoline demand remained below a year earlier, so the price rise had run ahead of demand and fell back. Saudi pledge to extend production cuts remained supportive, but had been exhausted by then, making it a weak fundamental for the post-holiday period.

(CBOT Soybeans)
On the 17th, CBOT soybeans declined in response to weak crush margins, mainly in the nearby contracts. Nearby May 5 contract fell 3.50 cents to 952.00 cents, new-crop November 11 contract fell 0.50 cent to 961.25 cents.
USDA NOPA reported March crush at 1.5036 billion bushels, above February’s 1.4279 billion but below the prior-year’s 1.5669 billion. The market’s average pre-release estimate was 1.5672 billion, so the result was viewed as disappointing. Earlier weekly export inspection figures were also weak, adding downside momentum, and prices posted a low after the NOPA report and could not fully recover. The morning Asia-time rally on Monday was seen as providing selling opportunities.

(CBOT Corn)
On the 17th, CBOT corn fell on profit-taking selling. Nearby May contract fell 4.50 cents to 366.50 cents, new-crop December contract fell 4.75 cents to 389.75 cents.
Before the holiday, prices showed their strongest tone in five weeks, supported by concerns over delayed planting due to rainfall in the U.S. Corn Belt. In addition to rain during the holidays, substantial rain was reported in the western U.S. Corn Belt after the holiday. Rain during the holidays was concentrated in the west and was below expectations. Post-holiday rainfall later receded from initial forecasts, triggering selling pressure. However, rainfall is still forecast for this week, so there were indications of bargain buying at lower levels. The Chicago close’s progress-rate expectations for national planting progress will be released, with a current forecast average of 8% (vs. 9% year ago).
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