4-minute explanation! History of the deterioration of US-Iran relations
Hello, this is Shimoyama.
While there are traders who are anxious about the worsening relations between the United States and Iran,
I think there are parts in the news that are a little hard to understand,
aren’t there? When you watch the news,
some parts may be a little unclear, right?
The Middle East situation is complex, and the historical background of the United States and Iran can be hard to grasp.
In the first place, why are the United States and Iran on bad terms?
If you don’t know the historical background around that, even when you watch the news,
the content may not go easily into your head.
So today I’ve concisely summarized the historical background
about the relationship between the United States and Iran.
The information I can convey in this newsletter is limited, but,
“Talks about the Middle East are complicated and hard to understand,” and
for those who have avoided it, it may help you understand the situation.
I hope this serves as one trigger for you.
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The tension is brutal! “Argo”
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Do you know the 2012 film “Argo”?
Ben Affleck, who also appeared in “Armageddon,”
directed and starred in it, and it won the Academy Award for Best Picture,
so many of you may have seen it.
The film depicts the historical event in which the American Embassy in Tehran, Iran,
was occupied by anti-American demonstrators from 1979 to 1980,
a major historical incident.
It’s suspenseful and gripping,
and it’s a highly regarded film for keeping you engaged until the end.
As a movie, it’s interesting, and more importantly, because the story is based on history,
watching this film lets you glimpse
the historical background of the United States and Iran.
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A rift is created due to one thing
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But, in the first place, why did the American Embassy have to be occupied?
In fact long ago,
the relationship between the United States and Iran was good.
From today’s perspective it’s hard to imagine, but it was good.
Although relations were good, something happened that caused a fight.
If you had to put it in one word, it’s“oil interests.”
The United States, in order to secure oil interests, supported a pro-American regime, and helped install
the figure of the Pahlavi dynasty as king.
King Pahlavi pursued Westernization,
while living a life of luxury
and brutal rule for the people.
As a result, the people became exhausted, and discontent exploded!
Ultimately, King Pahlavi was
forced into exile.
“You damn American dog!” might be how it felt.
The exile of Pahlavi led to hisflight to America.
Then, “No, don’t run away.
We’ll judge you and bring you back!”
So, the anti-American demonstrators occupied the American Embassy and took 52 Americans hostage.
“If you want the hostages released, hand over Pahlavi.”
By the way, on January 4 of this year, President Trump
tweeted using this 52-number figure,
saying,
“If Iran retaliates, attack 52 locations.”
It shows how deeply this historic event is etched
in the memories of Americans.
The occupation of the American Embassy continued for 444 days
before it finally began to move toward resolution.
However, once a hatred is born, it doesn’t disappear quickly.
The occupation of the American Embassy occurred from 1979 to 1980,
and since then,
the relations between the United States and Iran have remained bad.
Since 2000, it was discovered that Iran was building nuclear-related facilities,
to stop that, economic sanctions were imposed on Iran
and the relationship spiraled into a mire…
But then, a person shook up that situation.
The one who shook it up was former U.S. President Barack Obama.
In 2015,President Obama
moved toward the “Iran Nuclear Deal.”
The “Iran Nuclear Deal”
stated that Iran would limit its nuclear development, and in return, economic sanctions would be eased.
This is the essence of the agreement.
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Big business of 12 trillion yen decided by President Trump
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However!
What broke that is the current President Trump.
In May 2018, he withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal and
restarted economic sanctions.
By the way, one year before leaving the deal,
in May 2017,there was one major event.
The United States agreed to export weapons worth about 12 trillion yen to Saudi Arabia, which was hostile to Iran.
It was a big business move.
President Trump had been criticizing the Iran deal since his campaign,
but as the arms exports to Saudi Arabia show,
from the very beginning, he seemed ready to withdraw from the Iran deal.
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Where is President Trump’s true feelings?
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What do you think?
From what we’ve discussed so far, do you have a rough understanding of the flow of US-Iran relations?
If you watch the movie “Argo” as well, you’ll image the US-Iran relationship more realistically,
and it will be easier to understand.
Also, just knowing the historical background in broad terms will make it easier to understand the news.
However, I do not recommend trying to predict the future US-Iran relationship.
What attitude President Trump will show toward Iran in the future
is completely uncertain.
From a political business perspective,
but what he truly thinks is a matter of debate among experts.
Because President Trump is a businessman,
maybe he thinks, “As long as it makes money, that’s fine.”
But we can’t know for sure.
Like stock trading, it’s better to not jump to conclusions
and to approach information with as flat a perspective as possible
to benefit you.
Thank you for watching until the end today as well.
Keizo Shimoyama
