【FujiTom】 After settlement value is determined, overseas crude oil declines further and the drop widens

（NY Precious Metals）
On the 12th, New York gold edged higher but the gains narrowed. New York near-month June gold was up 3.9 dollars at 1278.1 dollars, and New York near-month July platinum was down 1.6 dollars at 967.9 dollars.
Buyer interest, supported by geopolitical risk, expanded, marking a high of 1281.8 dollars during the Asian session. Risk around North Korea intensified the outlook, encouraging buying due to the uncertain future. However, profit-taking was also seen on the sharp rise, and the 1280-dollar area held only temporarily. Nevertheless, due to risk aversion, the 1270-dollar area remained, continuing to move above the 200-day moving average. The decline in the NY Dow provided support and contributed to a rebound from the downside for NY gold. Tensions were expected to rise toward the weekend, with expectations of further gains from a base around 1270 dollars.

（WTI Crude Oil, NY Petroleum Products, North Sea Brent）
On the 12th, WTI crude oil fell back. After the settlement price was determined, it fell below 53 dollars, extending the downside. WTI near-month May was down 0.29 dollars at 53.11 dollars, North Sea Brent near-month June was down 0.37 dollars at 55.86 dollars. RBOB gasoline May was down 1.60 cents at 174.17 cents, and NY heating oil near-month May was up 0.14 cents at 165.20 cents.
In the closely watched US EIA stocks statistics, crude oil stocks fell by 21.66 million barrels from the previous week, and gasoline stocks fell by 2.973 million barrels, both showing strong results. After the report, there was a brief rebound, but it did not break out of the previous heavy-to-upside pattern, and the price gradually declined. The extension of Saudi Arabia’s production cuts had already been circulated as information and did not provide strong support. On the other hand, the increase in Cushing stocks, the crude oil delivery point, was cited as a selling factor for WTI. This week, stocks rose by 2.76 million barrels, but the recent increase was notable and linked to increased US crude production, which weighed on prices. Oil continued to rise further. Gasoline in NY saw a pronounced price drop, but demand for gasoline remained weak, and it did not move as market expectations for the driving season suggested. Even gasoline prices, after the settlement, widened their declines.

（CBOT Soybeans）
CBOT soybeans on the 12th saw a broad surge on technical buying. Near-month May was up 9.25 cents at 948.50 cents, the new crop November was up 8.25 cents at 956.75 cents.
The previous day, after a bearish USDA supply-and-demand report, prices posted nearly the year's low, but then recovered toward the close, forming a long lower wick on the chart. The rebound continued after reopening. The near-term bottoming-out view rose, drawing in technical buying. Although the supply-demand balance is not favorable, the rebound tendency triggered a weak response to fundamental factors. Near-month May saw a brief return to the 9.50-dollar area, but forced selling pushed prices back down from the 9.50-dollar area. For a while, technical rebounds are expected to continue, but there is little new fundamental buying material, so after an inherent rebound runs its course, selling pressure may reappear.

（CBOT Corn）
CBOT corn on the 12th edged up slightly. Near-month May was up 2.25 cents at 368.75 cents, new crop December was up 1.50 cents at 392.00 cents.
After the USDA supply-and-demand report, attention in the market turns to planting. The US Corn Belt expects rainfall over the weekend, with some voices worrying about possible delays in harvest. Follow-through buying in response to the rapid rise in soybeans was observed, with May near-month recovering to around the 3.70-dollar area, but this week has been largely sunny with significantly higher temperatures, suggesting planting progress. If rainfall over the weekend is a blessing, the near term may remain sensitive to this. The market is showing limited upside despite rainfall forecasts delaying planting, and price gains narrowed toward the close.
https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=14423