【Fujitomi】Tokyo Rubber plunges sharply around the current session center

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
On the 11th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products were supported by the continued strength in overseas crude oil and absorbed the stronger yen, remaining firm. The front-month crude oil September contract was 13,000 yen higher at 37,910 yen, the front-month gasoline October contract was 100 yen higher at 51,160 yen, and the front-month kerosene October contract was 160 yen higher at 49,480 yen.
Although the stronger yen acted as a selling factor, Tokyo’s petroleum market also rose as overseas crude remained firm, lifting the crude oil front month to above 38,000 yen. WTI near-month May was holding around the $53 range, supported by continued gains in NY gasoline. With expectations for further draws in gasoline stocks, the market anticipated gasoline strength, leading to a buy-signal correlation with WTI and keeping Tokyo crude around the 38,000 yen level. In the 13:00 hour, WTI fell below $53, and with the yen appreciating and stocks weakening, the Tokyo crude front month finally slipped below 38,000 yen. In the afternoon, the gains narrowed. Looking ahead to the API inventory statistics released tomorrow morning, a small increase in crude stocks is anticipated, while gasoline stocks are expected to fall sharply, so attention should be paid to gasoline stock movements. With Easter beginning on the weekend, the U.S. defines this as the start of the gasoline demand season.

（Tokyo precious metals）
On the 11th, Tokyo gold fell again on the back of the appreciation of the yen. The front-month February gold contract was 16 yen lower at 4,461 yen, and the front-month February platinum contract was 51 yen lower at 3,358 yen.
Contrasted with the previous day, the stronger yen weighed on, and Tokyo gold continued to decline. NY gold’s rebound could not provide support, pushing to the 4,450s. Platinum’s decline was more pronounced, reflecting deteriorating fundamentals, and while gold has been bought for risk, the market did not view it as a risk asset, so the risk-buying eased and Tokyo prices fell again. As with gold, the stance of buying on risk did not seem present, so Tokyo is likely to drop further. For platinum, analysts say a rebound is not a safe stance, and there is no buying opportunity for the time being. Now, for Tokyo gold, with NY gold’s decline and the yen’s rise, some front-month contracts even logged intraday lows in the 10 o’clock period, but in the afternoon the slide eased. NY gold’s recovery was a support. Tokyo gold held around the 4,450 yen range but seems likely to enter another box-range, requiring careful, incremental handling. Before 3 p.m., NY gold rose, and Tokyo gold narrowed its losses.

（Tokyo rubber）
On the 11th, Tokyo rubber saw a sharp drop, centered on the near delivery. The front-month August contract was down 10.1 yen at 229.3 yen.
In after-hours trading, the near delivery saw large declines and Shanghai Rubber also fell, pushing prices down toward the front months; the nearby contract hit a low of 231.0 yen the other day. In the daytime trading, the near delivery rebounded somewhat, narrowing losses toward the front months. The relatively small drop in Shanghai Rubber in after-hours trading also spurred some buyback, lifting to the 235 yen area. However, with the near delivery continuing to fall sharply, the price dropped to 230.1 yen in the daytime, and before 2:50 p.m. fell below 230 yen, suggesting the near delivery’s large decline influenced the front months. The significant drop in the near delivery is likely to remain a selling factor for the front months going forward.

（Tokyo corn）
On the 11th, Tokyo corn rose on the Chicago market’s sharp advance, but gains were limited. The front-month March contract was up 170 yen at 21,730 yen.
Funds, aiming for weather premiums during planting, bought aggressively, and Chicago surged at the start of the week; Tokyo corn also rose after hours, but the stronger yen limited gains. The previous day, there was little reaction to a rapid yen depreciation, so a reaction was expected, but with the yen advancing, the rise remained restrained as daytime trading began. There was a cautious vibe regarding weak demand-supply reports, and the market continued to be heavy on the upside. The front month’s high of 21,750 yen in the morning later gave way to a narrowing of gains. Based on the weak reports, Tokyo’s gains were expected to be restrained; however, given Chicago’s growing weather premium concerns, if the weak supply-demand reports push prices down, opportunistic buying might be considered. For now, waiting for the midnight 1:00 demand-supply report. Trading activity in the daytime session was very thin ahead of the report.

（Tokyo U.S. soybeans）
On the 11th, Tokyo’s general soybeans were subdued by negative factors. The front-month February contract was down 210 yen at 46,700 yen.
The previous day, Tokyo’s general soybeans had shown a strong advance that was expected to see a correction, but they did not respond to negative factors. In the daytime, the front month moved into negative territory, but only slightly, and there was no correction of the previous day’s sharp rise. The Tokyo market is quite overvalued, but considering the Chicago drop after the supply-demand report, it is believed the market will again test around 46,000 yen.
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