The Future of Foreign Exchange Markets 第95回［田嶋智太郎］
Tomotaro Tajima Profile
Economic analyst. President and CEO of Alfinaunts. Born in Tokyo in 1964. After graduating from Keio University, he shifted careers following time at currently Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. He analyzes and researches a wide range from finance and economy to strategic corporate management, and even individual asset formation and fund management. He serves as a lecturer at lectures, seminars, and training sessions hosted by private companies, financial institutions, newspapers, local governments, and various business associations, totaling about 150 speeches per year. He has numerous serialized writings and comments in print media, such as Weekly Gendai “Markets’ Rules of Net Trading” and Igzamina “Money Maestro Training Course.” He has also written columns on many websites about stocks and foreign exchange, earning high regard as a stock and FX strategist. He has also written the Home Economy section of the Kongo Minshisha’s “Basic Knowledge of Contemporary Terms.” After appearances as a regular on TV (TV Asahi “Yaji-uma Plus,” BS Asahi “Sunday Online”) and radio (Mainichi Broadcasting “Tough Guy’s Morning Radio”), he currently serves as a regular commentator on Nikkei CNBC “Market Wrap” and Daiwa Securities Information TV “Economy Marche.” His main DVDs include “Very Easy to Understand: Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Introductory Guide” and “Very Easy to Understand: Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Practical Technical Analysis.” His major books include “Wealth Reconsideration Manual” (Paru Publishing), “FX Chart ‘Formula for Profit’” (Alchemix), and “Why Can FX Make You Asset Rich?” (Teksuto), among many others. His latest publication is “How to Profit by Riding the Rising U.S. Economy.”
Could 2018 USD/JPY Move a Bit More Significantly?
Looking back again, 2017 USD/JPY moved within a surprisingly narrow trading range, continuing a pattern that traders and market participants found troublesome.
As mentioned in the previous update for this column, the “flat consolidation range” formed from late March lasted roughly 108–114 yen, continuing for at least nine months through the end of the year. The center of that range, around 111 yen, is where the USD/JPY was positioned at the time of the previous writing. Therefore I noted that “this (the center of the range) is a crucial crossroads; one must understand that this is a decisive moment” and that it is essential “not to take on positions recklessly.”
And as expected, the USD/JPY found a bottom and rebound around 111 yen (110.84) in late November, temporarily attempting to move back into the 113 yen range. In other words, the correction from the November 6 high did not reach the lower edge of the range. Repeating: what matters here is that when you are at a critical level, such as the center of a range, you should pause, think carefully, and never make trading decisions hastily.
