【Fujitomi】Tokyo Rubber plunges sharply around the current session center

(Tokyo Crude Oil and Petroleum Products)
On the 11th, Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products rose in line with overseas crude gains, absorbing the stronger yen and remaining firm. The September contract for crude oil futures was up 130 yen at 37,910 yen, the October contract for gasoline futures was up 100 yen at 51,160 yen, and the October contract for kerosene futures was up 160 yen at 49,480 yen.
The yen’s further advance was a selling factor, but Tokyo’s oil market continued to rise with overseas crude gains, lifting the crude oil front month to above the 38,000 yen level. WTI near-month May futures had been maintaining around the $53 range, supported by continued gains in NY gasoline. With expectations of further declines in gasoline stocks, buying the gasoline outlook encouraged a long correlation with WTI, helping Tokyo crude to stay in the 38,000 yen range. In the early afternoon, WTI fell below $53, the yen appreciated and stocks weakened, causing Tokyo crude front-month to fall below 38,000 yen. In the afternoon, the upside narrowed. Looking ahead to tomorrow morning’s U.S. API stock statistics, crude inventories are expected to rise modestly, while gasoline stocks are expected to plunge sharply, so attention should be paid to gasoline stock movements. With Easter beginning at the weekend, the U.S. defines this as the start of the gasoline demand season.

(Tokyo Precious Metals)
On the 11th, Tokyo gold fell further on fears of a stronger yen. The February gold futures were down 16 yen at 4,461 yen, and February platinum futures were down 51 yen at 3,358 yen.
Unlike the previous day, the stronger yen weighed on Tokyo gold, leading to another decline. NY gold’s rebound did not provide enough support, pushing to the 4,450 yen level. Platinum’s drop was more pronounced than gold’s, reflecting worsening fundamentals and selling pressure as a risk asset. As with gold, risk-taking was not sustained by the market, and Tokyo gold headed for another sharp drop. For platinum, some say a cautious strategy of selling rallies remains safest, with no immediate buying opportunities in sight. Turning back to Tokyo gold, NY gold’s decline and the yen’s strength overlapped, with some futures hitting intraday lows in the 10 o’clock hour, though later in the day the decline eased. NY gold’s recovery provided some support. Tokyo gold is stuck around the 4,450 yen range and may be confined to a box range again, suggesting careful, small-step management. Just before 3 p.m., NY gold rose, which helped reduce Tokyo gold’s downside.

(Tokyo Rubber)
On the 11th, Tokyo rubber saw a large decline, mainly in the current front-month. The August contract was down 10.1 yen at 229.3 yen.
In after-hours trading, the current-month fell sharply, while the Shanghai rubber index also weakened, causing futures to drop through the session, with the front month breaking the previous day’s low of 231.0 yen. In intraday trading, the current-month’s rebound reduced some of the losses for the nearer months, and the market saw a pickup from the low in the afternoon. The drop in Shanghai rubber during after-hours trading supported a rebound to the 235 yen range. However, given the ongoing steep drop in the current month, Tokyo prices fell again to 230.1 yen by midday, and even fell below 230 yen just before 2:50 p.m., influenced by the current-month’s larger declines. The sizable drop in the current month is likely to remain a source of selling pressure for the near months moving forward.

(Tokyo Corn)
On the 11th, Tokyo corn rose on the Chicago market’s sharp gains but showed slow gains. The March contract was up 170 yen at 21,730 yen.
With weather premiums during the planting season and aggressive fund buying in Chicago at the start of the week, Tokyo corn also rose after hours, but the yen’s strength limited the gains. The previous day’s rapid yen depreciation did not react strongly to the upside, so a rebound was anticipated, but with the yen’s advance, the upside was capped, and the daytime trading began with a cautious tone. A cautious stance toward demand and supply was evident, suggesting continued upside pressure is subdued. The front-month’s early high of 21,750 yen receded afterward. Given weak supply-demand reports, a cautious stance remains, but with Chicago’s weather premiums becoming a concern, if weak results push the market down, opportunistic buying could be considered. Awaiting the Demand-Supply report at 1 a.m. local time. Trading volume during the day was extremely light ahead of the report.

(Tokyo U.S. Soybeans)
On the 11th, Tokyo soybean futures showed little reaction to negative news. The February contract was down 210 yen at 46,700 yen.
The previous day’s aggressive buying had been expected to be corrected, but the correction did not materialize despite weak news. By midday, the front-month had moved into negative territory but only modestly. Although Tokyo is still relatively high, given the Chicago decline after the reports, it is expected to test 46,000 yen again.
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