【Fujitomi】Chicago corn surges as fund buying back, aimed at planting, becomes active

（NY Precious Metals）
On the 10th, New York Gold fell back and followed the plunge in other precious metals, breaking below $1,250. The nearby June contract for New York gold was at $1,253.9, down $3.4 from the previous week’s close, and the nearby July contract for New York platinum was down $22.6 at $940.0.
Although the market had been pressured from the start of the week, fears of rising US long-term interest rates spurred by Dallard/ Dudley’s remarks caused a sell-off at the end of the prior week, and the weakness persisted. In addition, while geopolitical risks spiked over the weekend, concerns about the uncertainty of those risks prevented a full-fledged risk-taking stance. Attention instead focused on the likelihood of a US rate hike. Moreover, as other precious metals had been bought aggressively on geopolitical risk, their price declines pulled gold down. Nevertheless, buying on dips below $1,250 revived some risk-taking, and the price later recovered to the mid-$1,250s. Platinum fell sharply. The underlying demand outlook remains weak, and the decline has been amplified by a risk-averse auction of buying.

（WTI Crude Oil, NY Oil Products, North Sea Brent）
On the 10th, WTI crude oil continued to rise, with the level moving into the $53 range. The nearby May WTI contract was up $0.84 to $53.08, the nearby June Brent contract was up $0.74 to $55.98. RB0B gasoline May was up 1.19 cents to 175.81 cents, and NY heating oil nearby May was up 1.89 cents to 164.73 cents.
The measures to determine settlement prices showed a broad uptrend, exceeding the prior week’s highs. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to provide support, but the renewed mention of Libyan oil production cuts also supported the move, leading to the $53 range. Attacks by armed groups again disrupted production at major oil fields. Syria is not a crude-producing country, and there are no signs of supply concerns in surrounding areas, but Libyan production cuts again carry the potential for significant support. The nearby May WTI contract had risen to the $53 range; however, further gains toward $54 will depend on new supportive materials.

（CBOT Soybeans）
On the 10th, CBOT soybeans were mixed but moved down from their highs. The nearby May contract was down 0.25 cents at 941.75 cents, and the new crop November contract was up 0.25 cents at 949.75 cents.
With the USDA supply-and-demand report due tomorrow, expectations were for a bearish outlook, so selling emerged at the highs. The Shanghai soybean surge at the start of the week followed the usual pattern, with Chicago soybeans rallying in the Asian time zone at the start but then providing selling opportunities as usual. Brazil’s production forecast was revised higher, but the published forecast already exceeded 110 million tons, so further upward revisions may be possible. In the context of global oversupply concerns, another drop after the report is also anticipated.

（CBOT Corn）
On the 10th, CBOT corn surged and closed near the high. Nearby May was up 6.75 cents at 366.25 cents, and the new-crop December was up 5.50 cents at 390.00 cents.
Funds were buying back in the corn market. Ahead of the planting season in the US corn belt, there was a move to anticipate weather premiums, and those buybacks led to a break above the 20-day and 200-day moving averages one after another, with the 100-day moving average also crossing higher toward the close, suggesting a potential technical shift. The CFTC positioning data released over the weekend showed that large funds were still net short, which likely sparked the early Monday buyback. After Chicago’s close, the USDA’s planting progress report would be released, with the expected average progress rate for the nation at 4% (range 2%–6%).
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