The Future of Foreign Exchange Markets Episode 119 [Tomotaro Tajima]
Tomotaro Tajima Profile
Economic analyst. Alfinauntsu President & CEO. Born 1964 in Tokyo. After graduating from Keio University, he shifted career after working at current Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. He analyzes and researches a wide range from finance and economy to strategic corporate management, and even individual asset formation and fund management. He serves as a lecturer for lectures, seminars, and trainings organized by private companies, financial institutions, newspapers, local governments, and various business groups, with about 150 talks per year. He has written features and comments for numerous print media, such as Weekly Gendai “Rules of Net Trading” and Examinia “Money Maestro Training Course.” He also writes columns on many websites about stocks and foreign exchange, earning high評価 as a stock and FX strategist. He also writes in the Home Economics section of Jiyu Kokuminsha’s “Kokumin no Kiso Chishiki.” After regular appearances on TV (TV Asahi “Yaju-ma Plus,” BS Asahi “Sunday Online”) and radio (MBS “Meiyak Shah’s Asa-chi Radio”), he currently serves as a regular commentator on Nikkei CNBC “Market Wrap” and Daiwa Securities Information TV “Economy Marche.” His main DVDs are “Very Easy to Understand: Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Introduction” and “Very Easy to Understand: Tomotaro Tajima’s FX Practical Technical Analysis.” His major books include “Wealth Reassessment Manual” (Pal Books), “FX Chart ‘Profit’ Equation” (Alchemix), “Why Can FX Make You Asset Rich?” (Texts), and many more. His latest release is “Profiting by Riding the Rising U.S. Economy” (Jiyu Kokuminsha).
U.S. Stocks & U.S. Economy Rising; Economy Heading Toward a Bubble
Even as the year 2019 was coming to a close, major stock indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, continued to hit record highs daily. Among them, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) performed especially well, rising from about 1,130 at the start of the year to about 1,850 at the time of writing, an increase of more than 60% in roughly one year. In other words, semiconductor-related stocks in the U.S. stock market have been broadly strong, which in turn feeds optimism about the U.S. economy in 2020.
According to the World Semiconductor Market Statistics (WSTS) forecast released in early December, the 2019 semiconductor market declined 12.8% year over year, but 2020 is expected to rebound by 5.9% due to fuller adoption of 5G, recovery in data center investment, and the emergence of next-generation gaming consoles.
The turning point signs in the market for semiconductors, now a leading industry, are bright for the global economy, and the accompanying global stock rally will likely amplify this positive “wealth effect.”
Also noteworthy are the ongoing releases signaling strong U.S. home sales. For example, the December NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 76, a gain of 5 points from the previous reading, marking a high not seen since 1999.
A reading above 70 has long been viewed as a signal that the Fed will start raising rates. However, the current Fed policy stance is to hold policy for about the next year. Moreover, President Trump continues to press the Fed for further easing. If this situation persists, the U.S. economy could increasingly resemble a bubble, for better or worse.
