"Master of Technical Analysis" Tomoyuki Hirano 8000-character interview "The charm and limits of technical analysis reached by devouring FX books"

Tomoyuki Hirano Profile

Tomoyuki Hirano. After graduating from a university in the United States and working in overseas exchange-related roles, he joined Himawari Securities. He has served as a dealer in the self-trading department, and as an information disseminator for FX and Nikkei 225 in the Investment Information Office, and as a seminar lecturer. He is currently independent and has established Trade Time Co., Ltd. While engaging in self-trading, investment education, and support for individual investors, he actively disseminates information to FX companies and conducts seminars.

Official Site：TradePress
Twitter：http://twitter.com/trade_time

● Listener: Takemu Sawashi (Editorial Dept.)

If Five Years Pass, Most People Won’t Continue

Katsumi: I’ll ask straight from the start, why do many people still fail to profit from FX both in the past and today?

HiranoOf course there are many factors, but one is that many people get bored easily.

I post the results of a certain trading method on my company's site every day. I write honestly about the truth.

HiranoNo matter how good a method is, there are times you win and times you lose. But I know that if I keep at it, the method will make money, so even when I win I’m not overly thrilled, and when I lose I’m not overly frustrated. I’ll check the fill emails, but I don’t get emotional about it.

Katsumi: Is that because there’s data backing that the method can win through verification?

HiranoYes. Since verification shows the edge, all that’s left is to continue. If it’s a good method, results will eventually appear if you persist.

On the operating site, alongside daily results, sometimes it shows cumulative totals up to now, and it generally trends upward. However, when you view it in parts, there are periods where money decreases accordingly. When people face such periods, many give up or switch to another method, failing to stick to one approach thoroughly.

Katsumi: So they can’t accumulate statistically.

HiranoIn fact, when the site posts profitable data, traffic increases. Conversely, when it posts loss data, fewer people come.

Katsumi: Do many people focus on short-term wins and losses?

HiranoThat may be true.

Katsumi: Hirano-san, you’ve been in investment education for a long time, but do many of your clients stay long-term?

HiranoNot many. For example, if 100 people gather initially, about 30 are very diligent, study hard, and try the method.

Katsumi: From the start, 30 percent?

HiranoBut after several years, hardly any remain. Of course some have become able to profit properly and graduate, but more often people drop out at a half-hearted stage.

Katsumi: They lack perseverance.

HiranoFurthermore, sometimes the same content is offered in different schools. If there are already students who’ve learned it, asking them to pay tuition again for the same content feels wrong, so I make sure to communicate that in advance. Still, some people take the course.

Katsumi: I sometimes buy diet books, but I’m satisfied after buying and don’t act. This might be similar.

HiranoAlso, even if I clearly explain the entry-to-settlement rules, very few can consistently execute them as written. People waver, or modify the rules in an ad-hoc way without basis.

Katsumi: This area might be one reason you can’t easily profit just by having the method.

Also, many who can’t keep the rules for long feel a sense of urgency to reach a conclusion. They want to win immediately.

HiranoThat may be true. If one is too anxious, they can’t endure the normal run of consecutive losses that naturally occur when applying a method.

Katsumi: For a method with about a 50% win rate, you can easily have five straight losses, right?

HiranoAmong former students, there was someone who doubled their assets in FX options in a year. When I called them later to ask about their situation, they had invested all the profits into cryptocurrencies at the end of 2017.

Katsumi: What...? That’s ...

HiranoI thought, since they had profits, they should have kept going. If you’ve been doing it for a long time and it’s working, there’s statistical edge.