[English translation] How do prediction markets contribute to the survival of democracy ~ Gnosis

Apparently finallythe start date of ICO (April 24, 12pm EST) has been setThis is Gnosis, and it seems expectations are rising due to more than four months delay from the initial plan. I found an interesting post about Prediction Markets on the official Gnosis blog, so I translated it into Japanese.

How Prediction Markets Can Contribute to the Survival of Democracy

Democracy is increasingly showing information-related problems. Voters cannot sift through the flood of information, and information is being transmitted as a system or mechanism rather than as direct facts.

According to Jason Brennan, the dean of the economics department in the Flanagan family and professor of economics and public policy at Georgetown University,so he says.

Democracy is not a universal remedy for all government problems. If there is no sufficiently informed populace, democracy cannot function effectively, leading to inconsistent and disastrous policy choices and potentially shifting toward dictatorial leadership. How can we solve the problem of lack of correct information in democracy while ensuring we can select leaders in an equitable and smooth way?

Prediction markets, basically tools to obtain the best and fairest information, offer several direct and indirect solutions to this problem.

One of the major current problems with the democratic system is that voters and the legislature cannot accurately grasp the impacts of certain policies.

For example, the repeal of the healthcare system attracted more support from voters who would pay more or lose money if the system were dismantled. How could such citizens access the information they needed to avoid making a decision that would hurt them?

Politicians make grandiose statements and baseless predictions. Major media outlets profit from sensational reporting and show little interest in realistic outcome forecasts, operating through groupthink. Conversely, it is almost impossible to discern truth from emerging information sources.

There is no reliable, quantifiable, accessible, and fair source of information about the impacts of policy judgments. This is where prediction markets come in. In existing reporting models, the media generally has restricted the negative impact of disseminating false information.

Using prediction markets, those who circulate false information face economic losses, while those who provide accurate information gain profits.