Who is a liar!? Dalio denies reports titled "Prepare for a global fund crash"

Hello, this is Shimoyama.



On November 22nd last month, as a trader, this is something you cannot ignore,

“A shocking article” circulated.



The world’s largest hedge fund,

Bridgewater Associates,

“Bet more than $1 billion that world stock markets would fall by March 2020!”

was the article.




（*By the way,

Bridgewater Associates’ founder is

Ray Dalio, and the Japanese translation of his book “PRINCIPLES”

was released this March, so even people who aren’t very investment-savvy

may have seen his name somewhere.）




‘By March 2020 the world stock market

would fall by more than $1 billion was bet!’

This article was reported by

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

(here ↓

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bridgewater-bets-big-on-market-drop-11574418601)




As it’s the world’s largest hedge fund,

its influence cannot be ignored.



“What, will it fall in just four more months?”

respond all traders around the world, reacting.



Moreover, it’s not just a drop, but one can read that they’re

preparing for a “historic crash.”



However, after that, the situation heads in an unexpected direction.



Bridgewater’s founder

Ray Dalio posted on Twitter immediately,

“It's wrong.”In other words, he argued that the article was wrong.



“What, was it fake news?” is how it feels.



The source of the information is The Wall Street Journal.



It is common for media articles to contain some lies or mistakes,

but would they publish such a large fabrication?



What do you think? Ultimately, what is the truth?



Many traders rely on fundamentals

in trading. It is extremely important to discern the truth,





so I hope you’ll think about it in your own way,



As for me, even after Dalio said the article was wrong,

the fact that



WSJ did not delete the article

is one hint.



If the article’s content were 100% wrong,

the article would have been deleted.



By not deleting the article

the WSJ

makes one wonder that

Bridgewater Associates may have held ashort position of over $1 billion.





The phrase “a position anticipating a drop” may have been

the wrong interpretation.



Holding a short position of over $1 billion may be true,

but it could also have been an

“insure-position” for any worst-case scenario.



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Where is the truth?

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But you know...



Perhaps Dalio genuinely bet on a fall as written.





WSJ may have uncovered that fact.





Dalio, worried, might have lied to hide the truth,

a possible scenario.





Or,

“WSJ wrote the article,

Dalio denies it”

could have been the entire sequence of events,a strategy all along.



For both WSJ and Dalio,

there might have been an incentive to lure investors

toward a particular side with their positions, which is another possibility.

Of course, this is speculation, and the truth is unknown.



What is important is

to look at the information you have from various perspectives.















which can give you new insights.



If you insist on “it must be this way!” you will be the one who loses.



Please cultivate a habit of considering many possibilities

so you aren’t swayed by information or deceived.

Be careful.



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Actually... information is enough with just the closing price of the day

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That said, it’s not easy.



Human thinking is always biased.



To think without being 100% controlled by biases is impossible.



If you don’t let information control you,

there is no one in this world who can live without being influenced.



For example,

if you hear that“By March 2020

the world stock market would fall

by more than $1 billion!”you would already

find it hard to escape the falling image in your mind.



You cannot view the market in a completely flat way.



So what should you do?



The only option is to stop using information as the basis for trading.



Trade by ignoring information.



Many people will find it hard to accept trading without information.





They will feel anxious about the lack of information.



But, to be clear,

in stock trading, you can profit from just one number—the closing price of the day—

the closing price.



Economic indicators and voices of officials—

discard all information and

only knowing the closing price of that day

can allow you to profit.



Well then, thank you for watching until the end today as well.





Keizō Shimoyama