[Fujitomi] Upon Libya's production cuts were resolved, crude oil prices fell.

（NY precious metals）
On the 3rd, New York gold rose slightly amid the subway bombing in Russia and deteriorating U.S. economic indicators. The COMEX gold near-month June contract was up $2.80 at $1,254.0 per ounce, and the COMEX silver near-month July contract was up $5.8 at $958.2 per ounce.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing index was 57.2, as expected, but coming in below last month’s 57.7 raised concerns about worsening business conditions, prompting stock declines and hedging demand for gold. Earlier, there had been news of a subway bombing in Russia, but it did not strongly trigger risk buying. With this ISM figure serving as a trigger, Russia’s incident was also regarded as a risk factor, and the price rose to a high of $1,255.9. However, on the 6th–7th, with a U.S.–China summit and the U.S. employment data looming on the 7th, upside buying in gold remained limited.

（WTI crude oil, NY petroleum products, North Sea Brent）
On the 3rd, WTI crude oil fell back. WTI near-month May contract was down $0.36 at $50.24, and Brent near-month June contract was down $0.41 at $53.12. RBOB gasoline May contract was down 0.93 cents at 169.37 cents, and NY heating oil near-month May contract was down 1.12 cents at 156.34 cents.
One of the triggers for the sharp rise in crude had been Libya’s output cuts, but news over the weekend indicated a rebound. Attacks by armed groups had enforced production cuts of about 220,000 barrels, but that was revised to around 120,000 barrels recovering. Not a full recovery yet, but a full rebound was expected by the end of this week, which contributed to the oil price drop. Additionally, a decline in NY gasoline, which had been a driver of the earlier surge, acted as a selling factor. The sharp drop in the U.S. Dow also prompted profit-taking selling. In the U.S., there was also talk of lawsuits against President Trump’s order to repeal environmental regulations, creating a psychological selling pressure on increasing crude output. As a result, WTI near-month May contract hovered around $51, testing the $50 level. Now attention turns to Reuters’ inventory statistics in the mid-term, with crude oil inventories down 400,000 barrels from the previous week and products inventories broadly decreasing, which is seen as near-term supportive.

（CBOT Soybeans）
On the 3rd, CBOT soybeans continued to fall, with the decline widening into the close. The nearby May contract was down 6.50 cents from last week at 939.50 cents per bushel, and the new-crop November contract was down 3.25 cents at 950.75 cents.
In Asia, there was a rebound, but as U.S. trading hours approached, selling intensified. The weak U.S. Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings and national stocks projections led to selling pressure. The April soy balance sheets were expected to show an upward revision to South American production, and the weaker U.S. stocks were likely to push U.S. ending stocks higher, signaling further global soybean supply. As South American sales accelerate in April, funds’ disappointed selling grew, pushing prices lower toward the close. It was also revealed that Brazil’s soybean exports in March were at a record high, contributing to fund-driven selling. Nearby May contract traded below $9.40, with $9.20 in sight. The USDA’s weekly export inspections were within expectations but were interpreted as bearish due to the weak initial forecast.

（CBOT Corn）
On the 3rd, CBOT corn briefly rose but closed with gains pared. Nearby May contract was up 3.00 cents at 367.25 cents, and new crop December contract was up 3.25 cents at 391.50 cents.
Together with the strong planted area forecast released last week and the CFTC’s report after the Chicago close indicating a net short by large funds, the market opened with higher prices. Technical buying intensified, and there were moments when the nearby May contract broke above $3.70. The USDA’s weekly export inspections were within expectations but strong in level, supporting buying. However, by the close, gains narrowed and the price fell back below $3.70. With soybean prices also turning lower, profit-taking selling was likely. In the U.S. corn belt, favorable rainfall since last weekend suggested no major planting problems, but a shift toward corn planting was being anticipated, which may have contributed to profit-taking selling.
https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=14193