【Fujitomi】WTI surged to the $50 level
（NY Precious Metals）
On the 30th, NY gold continued to fall and dipped below $1,250. The near-month NY Gold June contract fell $8.80 to $1,248.00, and the near-month NY Platinum July contract fell $0.60 to $955.70.
With the Dow advancing and concerns over a stronger dollar, it quickly fell below $1,250, and even after NY gold’s liquidation value was determined, the fear of further dollar strength widened the decline. Maintaining the $1,250 level from the previous day had little meaningful effect, and as quarter-end approached, position adjustments were believed to have contributed to the larger decline. Rather than being wary of second-quarter event risks, the near-term dollar strength seems to have constrained the market and encouraged selling. While NY palladium surged on the positive stock outlook to recover into the $800s, its price movement contrasted with the others.
(WTI Crude Oil, NY Petroleum Products, North Sea Brent)
On the 30th, WTI crude oil rose again, reclaiming the $50 level. WTI Crude near-month May contract rose $0.84 to $50.35, North Sea Brent near-month May contract rose $0.54 to $52.96. RBOB Gasoline May contract rose 1.03 cents to 168.37 cents, NY Heating Oil near-month May contract rose 1.45 cents to 156.05 cents.
The move higher was supported by expectations that OPEC would extend production cuts, aiding the rebound to around the $50 level. A day earlier, the Iranian oil minister spoke, and today Kuwait's oil minister affirmed OPEC’s extension of cuts. This is a so-called Rhetorical intervention by oil-producing countries. With Libya’s production cuts in the background, markets sensitive to such positive news leveraged it into technical buying. The Dow’s rise also provided psychological support, and the dollar strength was largely ignored. Having recovered back above $50, the market mood toward material fundamentals softened, increasing attention to weaker fundamentals and potential hesitation.
(CBOT Soybeans)
CBOT soybeans on the 30th weakened further ahead of a cautious late-month U.S. Department of Agriculture report. Near-month May contract fell 7.00 cents to 962.00 cents, and the new-crop November contract fell 5.25 cents to 962.75 cents.
With South American crops abundant, exports are expected to remain strong, while US soybean planting area is likely to expand, providing selling pressure. With a projected global oversupply in the future, there are few factors driving buying, making further declines likely, with the price at its five-month low. Even if the report showed bearish details, the market tends to react with disappointment-driven selling rather than a gradual downward trend. Initial estimates for Brazil’s soybean production were around 113.3 million tons, a rather weak forecast that also fed selling pressure.
(CBOT Corn)
CBOT corn on the 30th ended narrowly lower in a tight range ahead of the USDA release. Near-month May contract fell 0.75 cent to 357.75 cents, and the new-crop December contract fell 0.50 cent to 381.50 cents.
The weekly export sales announced in the morning were 716,000 tons, below the lower end of expectations. However, market attention remained on the USDA report at month’s end, so selling pressure did not fully materialize. Planting intentions area is watched to see how much it will exceed 90 million acres. U.S. inventories are expected to reach an all-time high for this time of year, making fears of a sustained oversupply prevalent. The market will first focus on planting intentions; exceeding 91 million acres would be bearish for prices.
https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=14109
