【Fujitomi】Tokyo oil market extends significantly, but price drop causes gains to narrow

（Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products）
Tokyo crude oil and petroleum products on the 30th continued to rise, buoyed by a sharp rise in overseas crude oil. The front-month August crude futures rose 650 yen from the previous day to 35,870 yen, the front-month October gasoline rose 700 yen to 49,120 yen, and the front-month October kerosene rose 810 yen to 47,390 yen.
Supported by the bullish U.S. EIA inventory statistics, overseas oil markets surged and the Tokyo oil market also advanced. Considering WTI's price extension to new highs after the night session, the Tokyo oil market showed higher prices from the morning into the night. However, after 10:00, NY oil products softened and WTI fell into negative territory, leading to a retreat in aggressive buying in the Tokyo market. In the afternoon, yen depreciation was restrained and the Nikkei stock average showed softness, resulting in a pause in gains and a consolidation. NY gasoline’s strong favorable conditions stood out, suggesting a move mindful of U.S. demand season; as a gauge of WTI’s direction, one cannot take eyes off NY gasoline price movement. NY gasoline has broken through its 200-day moving average decisively, and depending on the strength of that bullishness, $50 might come into view for WTI. Just before 13:30, WTI rose to the mid-$49 range, and NY gasoline also showed a rebound, but was influenced by early European traders. Consequently, the Tokyo oil market continued to buy, aiming for a new high.

（Tokyo precious metals）
Tokyo gold on the 30th rose slightly again. Front-month February gold futures rose 5 yen to 4,458 yen, and front-month February platinum rose 12 yen to 3,416 yen.
Tokyo gold benefited from the NY gold level being raised and moved into the 4,460 yen range during the night session, continuing to rise. In the daytime, the favorable yen depreciation boosted the market, pushing NY gold’s high price higher and expanding Tokyo gold’s gains. In the 10 o’clock hour, a high of 4,468 yen was seen, but after 11:00, it fell below 4,460 yen. The yen depreciation faced a brake, and NY gold remained soft, causing Tokyo gold to be pulled back. Despite that, NY gold remained around the $1,250 level. Tokyo gold is also expected to form a support base around the 4,450 yen level, with continued handling on pullbacks. Given it is the end of the quarter, one should watch for downside risks, but it is viewed as a buying opportunity.

（Tokyo Rubber）
Tokyo rubber on the 30th saw the front month soften. Front-month August futures closed 2.5 yen lower at 241.5 yen.
Overseas rubber rose in after-hours trading in Shanghai, helping the morning to rise, briefly hitting 247.2 yen. However, Shanghai rubber’s price level had fallen sharply from the previous day’s daytime high, so the morning rally may have been excessive. Around 10:00, the market tested 247 yen several times but could not move above it. Thereafter, with the weight of resistance at higher prices and Shanghai rubber’s renewed decline, the market went into negative territory just before 11:00. The daytime low of 240.5 yen was seen before noon, but the 240 yen level was still held.

（Tokyo Corn）
Tokyo corn on the 30th waited for USDA releases, showing a mixed pattern. Front-month March futures fell 80 yen to 21,630 yen.
Overnight in Tokyo, corn traded mixed as the price moved within a box range, but the front month recovered to around 21,800 yen, continuing the gains. In the morning, the market behaved similarly to the night session within a box range, supported by a yen-weakening environment, leading to a renewed attempt at 21,800 yen for the front month. However, as Chicago’s downward revision resumed, the front-month gain narrowed and by noon fell into negative territory. The correction expected at week’s start remains partial, and given the elevated price levels, a correction may be deemed necessary. With USDA releases at the end of the week anticipated to be bearish, a selling stance is expected for the start of the week.

（Tokyo Soybeans, United States origin）
Tokyo general soybeans on the 30th were mixed depending on orders. Front-month February soybeans rose 20 yen to 47,210 yen.
In overnight trading, the front month surged, but the front month in daytime trading also moved sharply higher. Chicago’s further decline was ignored. Chicago reopened and fell further, and despite the yen’s depreciation, prices remained high. Chicago continued to slide, but the movement was driven by the weak planting intentions and U.S. stock expectations for the end of the month, making it likely that Tokyo front-month prices would break below 47,000 yen.
https://www.fujitomi.co.jp/?p=14101